#CoronavirusUK comparisons with Germany

The UK government efforts to deal with the Corona Virus pandemic is continually being compared with the outcomes in Germany - particularly their lower death rate.

Our government and scientific and medical advisers have received a daily barrage of questions from the media - most of it negative regarding comparisons with Germany.

The UK advisers have repeatedly said :

• Every country is different.
• Making comparisons can be miss leading because you have to be sure you are comparing like for like. What is behind the data?
• It is too early to draw emphatic conclusions about what has worked and not worked but it crucial we learn from each other as much as possible and we are in regular contact.

Most people accept this but there is a theme running through the media - both mainstream and social - that we are getting it wrong - we have been slow to respond - our leaders have been negligent and incompetent or even worse the Tories are only interested in money and don't care about the NHS and the common people.

If the purposes of objectivity I am going to focus on the point "every country is different". How does the England differ with Germany.

• Geographical size. Germany 357K sq km. England 130k sq km
• Population density Germany 240 per sq km England 430 sq km and much higher in the SE.
• Per capita income approx 15% greater in Germany. They are more wealthier than us per head of population.
• The German government debt is about 60% of GDP. The UK's is over 80%.
• Despite austerity measures our government is still spending £40 billion a year more than it has coming in (our deficit). Our debt is still going up. Germany on the other hand is in surplus and their national debt is now reducing. 

So if you want to compare our performance with Germany objectively you need to acknowledge population densities are very significantly higher in England and as a nation Germany is significantly wealthier per head of population (and therefore tax revenues are higher to spend on public services). 

(Anyone looking objectively at the state of our respective national finances will see why austerity measures were critically important in the UK.)

Another characteristic I think is the German flair for organisation. We have all observed the German tourist in operation. If you have ever been to Germany you will appreciate how organised and disciplined they are. There is no argument. The German's have a flair for getting things done and I have no doubt this has been a factor in their favour in dealing with coronavirus. In the UK it seems like the government are herding sheep. Our media has done little to help. A strand of our public are deeply cynical - bloody minded and bitterly vociferous.

And then there is a the German health care system that has apparently done so well in dealing with the coronavirus. Be careful what you wish for!

Germany has an advanced health care systems - certainly one of the oldest and best in the world on all measures. However they do not have a sacred cow - called the NHS. Their system is insurance based - is contributory based on earnings. It is multi layered. Only 50% of hospitals are state owned and there is a huge amount of private practice integrated with the state system.

I am not advocating the end of the principle of the NHS - far from it - ie free to our citizens based on need rather than ability to pay. However I do believe as the Germans have found, we would get better value for money if we were more flexible and open minded in how this vital principle is delivered. (see below) 

Healthcare in Germany is funded by a statutory contribution system that ensures free healthcare for all via health insurance funds. Insurance payments are based on a percentage of income, shared between employee and employer. 

Health insurance in Germany is divided between statutory and private schemes. The statutory health insurance, the so-called Gesetzliche Krankenversicherung(GKV), occupies a central position in the healthcare system in the Federal Republic of Germany. About 88% of the population are covered by statutory health insurance, which is compulsory for all with a gross income of less than 5,062 EUR per month. Private healthcare schemes can either provide a complete health service for those who opt out of the GKV, or top-up cover for those who remain within it.

In Germany, the provision of healthcare can be broadly separated into outpatient and inpatient sectors. Outpatient services are largely the responsibility of independent physicians practising on a freelance basis under contract to the statutory health insurer. Physicians treating patients who are members of the statutory health insurance funds must by law be registered with the regional Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (Kassenärztliche Vereinigung). 

Hospitals in Germany are grouped into three main types:

Public hospitals (Öffentliche Krankenhäuser) run by local authorities, towns and the Länder Voluntary, non-profit making hospitals (Frei gemeinnützige Krankenhäuser) run by churches or non-profit organisations, such as the German Red CrossPrivate hospitals (Privatkrankenhäuser) run as free commercial enterprises.

So all in all we are where we are. I trust our government and our scientific and medical advisers. They have responded to the challenge. Every nations starting point has been different. Demographics are different. Geography is different. And we are not over it yet. Let's wait and see how it works out in the end. I am very sure an objective analysis of the UK response after the event will stand up well. Lets hope so!

#CoronavirusUK random thoughts - early Easter Monday

It is Easter Monday. All is quiet. I am just back from an early morning bike ride. As forecast a big change in the weather today. The cycle back was into the teeth of a cold north easterly. I had to stand on the pedals to make progress. Sand being blown horizontally off the beach - fair-weather exercisers not out this morning.

Coronavirus is dominating. My mind is like a bagatelle on the subject - so I will have to try and show restraint. I thought I would get some points down on paper for posterity! Thoughts might be no coherent order but just as they percolate to the top - ha!

The Queen in her recent address to the nation said something along the lines of "when this is all over we will look back and ask ourselves - how did we do - how did I do - did the nation stand together - are we proud of how we responded - did we cope well - did we behave well?" This is a powerful message for everyone.

I think I want to recount this. You decide if it is relevant. I was one of a crew of 18 on a long distance sailing race. Harsh conditions and no landfall prospect for about a month. We were in it together. In the first few days it became apparent there had been a major miscalculation on food provisioning. The victuallers had got it wrong. How did it happen. Who was responsible. What are we going to do about it.? The crew understood. We had to make the best of it! We had to deal with it. There would be a need for rationing. And what about the individuals directly responsible - did they do it deliberately. Was it wilful. Were they dismissive? No of course not - they were good people. On a small boat the crew are tight knit. As you would expect the crew pulled together - team spirit and morale was paramount - so no complaining - no recriminations - no wisdom of hindsight - no points scoring - no greediness. You can see where I am going with this?!

In a national emergency as the coronavirus pandemic surely is - with lives at stake and our economic future on the line - you might expect the nation to rise above party politics for the national good. Generally speaking I think our political leaders are trying pretty hard to achieve this - but of course party politics and the search for good opinion poll ratings will never go away completely. The Liberal Democrats are keeping a very low profile - and the new Labour Leader while understandably trying to make an impact politically is at the same time trying to be prime ministerial like too. The Tories are clearly not focused on scoring political points either - the burden of responsibility is weighing far too heavy for that. 

The new Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has said he will hold the government to account and focus on the things they could do better on. This is not unreasonable providing the calls are objective and constructive. How will his comments make things better - how will they help? - should be the yardstick. The only thing I would say is it is much easier to say I would have done something earlier of differently if you have the full benefit of hindsight and that is not constructive.

A question I would like to ask you. Are you the sort of person that moans because the council have not cleared the snow from the roads the morning following an overnight snow storm - and you say things like - in Sweden the roads would be open by now !?

This virus is unprecedented - but some people expect the government to have all the answers and all the ducks lined up right from the start. In the same way they criticise the government for not having state of the art snowploughs in storage ready to go (even though we rarely get snow) they expect the NHS to have everything it could possibly need right from the outset even if it is being faced with the worst pandemic outbreak for 100 years (and unlike snow - every virus is different in its nature.)

It comes back to the same sort of issues as my sailing race. How does it help carping on about what might have been. How does that help us acquire the things we need.How does it improve things? It doesn't! As a nation we are where we are. It is our obligation to help our nation get through it by responding positively to the challenge. We need a national team spirit. 

I am proud to say on the whole our nation is responding well - but certainly when that reflective moment comes as the Queen wisely emphasised it will - some in our nation should hang their heads in shame because they have set out to undermine the governments leadership and efforts for small minded political partisan objectives and/or self promotion. The media have been particularly guilty. Shame on them. 

Any recriminations should come afterwards - with analysis in the cold light of day when all the facts are available. It is not for now - we have a fire to put out - it is not the right time to consider if it could have been prevented or if we could have been better prepared. The best way to put out the fire and minimise the damage is good team work in dealing with this national emergency and all pulling together.  

#CoronavirusUK why can't I sit on the beach - even go for a swim?

It is early morning Saturday - right in the middle of the Easter weekend and of course right in the middle of our attempts to stop the spread of coronavirus getting completely out of control.

The nation by gov't decree is in lockdown. We are being urged to follow these rules :

Perhaps untypically for Easter this Easter holiday weather forecast is for fine weather - in the south at least - sun bathing weather ( it was yesterday.) It is ironic - for once the Easter weather is superb and the country is in lockdown.

A lock down - social distancing - would be challenging of course at any time. Fine weather does not make it easier - particularly because not everyone lives in a generous house - with space and garden. Easter is a time when extended families and friends meet up. This year it should not happen.

However there have been outbreaks of non compliance - certainly over previous weekends where people have driven to beauty spots for quality recreational time. There has been controversy and not everyone agrees with the need to restrict recreational use of public areas as long as required social distancing is maintained.

Where I live I am close to the sea and beaches. In other areas focus is on the use of parks. Some people are arguing - what is the problem with laying in the sun - going for a paddle or a swim as long as you retain the social distancing requirements (which most people seem to accept and are trying to adhere to.)

At face value what is wrong with laying on the beach and having a picnic - providing social distancing is maintained ? If I am not spreading the virus - what harm am I doing? Why the need for what appears to be draconian measures? It is a fair question perhaps? (where I live there are a lot of second homes. The gov't have said - do not travel to second homes. Most have stayed away - but some haven't.)

However there is a simple justification for the government directive and this needs to be understood and accepted. Why can't you lay in the park or sun bathe on the beach, or travel to your second home at this time? Compelling answer -  " what if everybody did it ? "

When you think about it - the only reason you can maintain social distancing on the beach or in the park is because everyone else is sticking to the rules not to come. The previous weekend the scenes on Brighton were ridiculous. A nice weekend - we will head for the beach and keep our distance - but in the end thousands were trying to do that!

So that is the practical and moral answer - no picnics on beach or park - because your social distancing is only achieveable - dependent on - everyone else (and unlike you) sticking to the rules and is that fair? Is it reasonable? Is it socially responsible? No!

On this basis rules have to be enforced.

There are two other truisms I have observed over the years about human nature that are relevant here :

The first is - give an inch and - people will often take a yard and then a mile. A picnic - alcohol - a party! Give that inch and society will be in trouble.

The second and sadly - one family breaking the rules will often justify others doing the same. (Years ago I went to Japan - the streets were meticulously clear of litter. I think part of their success was based on litter free streets made dropping litter even more conspicuous and therefore wasn't done). Contrast with the UK!

My final point - for adhering to the rules has something to do with solidarity. (Of course it is nothing to do with government policy as such.) Years ago I remember reading an account of a soldier returning from fighting in the terrible Falkland's war - fighting for Britain (and many died.) He referred to sailing into Portsmouth to see people laying in the sun and relaxing and enjoying themselves. He wasn't angry about it but somehow did feel upset - it just seemed surreal - such a contrast with the reality of his life at that time. He felt he deserved more solidarity - more acknowledgement of what he had been through for the nation.

This photo was placed on FB today. It is a picture of a young ITU nurse who has worked 65 hours in six days wearing PPE. Your heart goes out to her. Solidarity is surely not complaining about not being able to lay on the beach - it is about reducing the virus spread so young heroes like this wonderful nurse does not have to give quite so much to save precious lives - she is already giving far more than her share bless her. xxxxx

Thank you for being a hero - do we deserve your selfless dedication? xxxx

#CoronavirusUK & Sweden

The UK as the rest of the world are dealing with the corona virus pandemic.

Our government have a strategy based on scientific evaluation and advice. That advice of course is being moderated to respond to circumstantial changes as they emerge.

Initially the people were fully prepared to listen to this advice but gradually there has emerged a band of armchair experts - led by media mischief making.

Almost daily the media hacks grill the experts at the daily briefing - implying we must have it wrong because other countries are doing it differently and quite often - must be doing a better job of it as a result.

The UK experts (CSO & CMO) always say the same thing - EVERY COUNTRY IS DIFFERENT - OUR STRATEGY IS TAILORED FOR OUR SPECIFIC CIRCUMSTANCES AS A NATION.

To the majority of us this makes complete sense. However some will not accept it. They have no faith in our country.

Just to illustrate the point SWEDEN is regularly referred to. They are not locking down like us. Why are we locking down? We must have it wrong because the Swedes know what they are doing!

Most people with any general knowledge know Sweden is quite different from the UK and it is no surprise to us that different strategies might be concluded. That does not mean either is right or wrong - time will tell of course.

But just to illustrate how different we are I looked up a few statistics by way of comparison :

•  Sweden is twice the geographical size of the UK.
•  England is a 1/3rd of the geographical size of Sweden.
•  Sweden's population is 10 million.
•  England's population alone is 56 million. (so we have a population nearly 6 times larger crammed into an area of 1/3rd the size).
•  The UK's population is 68 million.
•  The population density in Sweden is about 20 people per sq kilometre
•  In the UK it is 267 per sq kilometre.
•  In England it is 430 per sq kilometre on average and in the South East and the Birmingham  conurbation - even higher - they are the most densely populated areas in Europe.
•  Stockholm - Sweden's capital has a population of under a million.
•  London's population is over 8 million.
•  Sweden only has two other large cities - Gothenburg - pop 570k - Malmo 340k. Compare that with the UK. Bristol is about 450k.
•  One other point - Sweden is a much more wealthy country than the UK when you use the per capita GDP measure (per person).
•  Sweden's per capita GDP is 4.5 x larger than the world's average. England's is only 2.25 times the world average. Consequently we have nothing like the same resources per head of population to pay for public services like the NHS and welfare benefits. Too many of our people think we are the 5th or 6th most wealthy country in the world. We are not. We are 27th!

So after reading this factual list above would you objectively expect the UK and Sweden to have the same strategy !? Get behind the government guidelines - they are trying to recommend what the science says is the best for our nation - not for Sweden - or any other nation.

#CoronavirusUK and religion

A short blog :

The UK like the rest of the world is struggling to get Coronavirus under control. Our government has issued the following directives - stay at home wherever possible - work from home if you can - do not mix households - only go out if it essential - stay 2m apart - no group gatherings. The main thrust of our national strategy is to flatten peak numbers of those contacting the virus at the same time, in order to give out National Health Service the best possible chance of coping with the inevitable % who will need to be hospitalised and who will possibly die. Like in all hospital systems there is a limit to ICU places.

Most people have readily responded well to these requirements - but not everyone.

While I was out on my early morning bike ride this morning I was thinking about a photo which is doing the rounds on social media. As often happens my mind jumps around by association - and I come up with a blog.

Just to be clear I would like to say at this point that while I am an atheist, I fundamentally agree that anyone and everyone is free to follow their personal religious belief or otherwise as a fundamental human right.

The only caveat is that by following your religion you do others no harm and we are all treated equally under the law.

Anyway - the blog :

A number of years ago I read Richard Dawkin's book - God Delusion.

There were a few paragraphs about Pope John Paul 11. He was victim of an assassination attempt in Rome in 1981.

Pope John Paul shot in an assassination attempt - Rome 1981

The Pope was seriously injured - near fatal. Subsequently Pope John Paul stated his survival was the result of the maternal hand of Our Lady of  Fatima - a catholic saint - who guided the bullet. (Dawkins mischievously made the observation that most readers would probably make - why didn't she guide the bullet to miss him altogether!)

However his substantial point was "others might think the team of surgeons who operated on him for six hours deserved at least a share of the credit" - but perhaps their hands were maternally guided!?

Back to yesterdays photo that was causing so much anger and frustration.  

It shows a group of Muslims praying on a Birmingham tennis court after the lock down - clearly in contravention of government advice/requirements.

With the mosques closed due to coronavirus. They just rock up on a tennis court in Birmingham.

No doubt these people are praying to Allah and asking him to keep them and their families safe from the coronavirus. If they remain safe - no doubt they will claim Allah looked over them and protected them.

However if they get the virus - which is likely - where will they go to get medical help if they need it?

We all know - the NHS - their local hospital!

And this is the whole point. It is the Pope situation.

I have copied something I came across recently put out through the NHS :

Many Muslims live in extended families, often, like my household, with three generations under one roof. This means there are a higher number of carriers who can (and often will) infect an elderly relative. An older person cannot effectively self-isolate when they are living in close quarters with their children, grand-children and perhaps even extended family.

We are all social creatures, but maybe Muslims are more social than most. We eat together – often from one plate, sharing utensils and side dishes. For many Muslims, social intimacy like handshakes and hugs are so hardwired into their behaviour that the week-old invention of “social distancing” is both alien and absurd to them.

This is particularly the case in Britain’s 1600 Mosques (there are 130 just in my home town of
Bradford). Islam is a collective religion, and although prominent British Muslim organisations like the Muslim Council of Britain have – in line with Muslim-majority countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt – instructed Muslims to pray at home, many of the UK’s mosques are likely to remain open. Thankfully most mosques have heeded the advice, but the prayer spaces that are still open may have even more people packed into them than usual, increasing the risk.

During Friday prayers (attendance at which is, under normal circumstances, an obligation for most Muslims), the close proximity of worshippers makes the spread of coronavirus a near certainty. We know this from events in the Muslim world: Malaysia’s spread of Covid-19 has been traced back to a single religious gathering at a Mosque, which allowed the virus to spread not only across that country, but to six others.

All this makes coronavirus particularly troubling in Muslim communities, some of which are, like Bradford, in the most deprived areas of the country, with poor health outcomes to match.

The niche ethnic supermarkets and halal butchers that many Muslims depend on for essential goods have less reliable supply chains than the big supermarkets, forcing many local Muslim grocers to significantly increase their prices. This is despite their customers being some of the poorest people in Britain. 

And in pockets of Muslim communities, there is mistrust – or simple unawareness – of government advice. The official NHS website on the coronavirus, which has been prominently plugged during the prime minister’s daily press conferences, is available only in English.

This is what the nation is up against. There is plenty of evidence in areas like Small Heath in Birmingham - unlike in the majority of the country - government advice is just being ignored.

It is sad to say these Muslim communities are quick to point the finger. Quick to claim they have been singled out - quick to claim prejudice and the world is against them. Quick to claim Islamophobia! They will be quick to criticise the NHS if they do not get 1st Class treatment.

To say we feel frustrated is an understatement. Practice your religion - fine - but you have to change your practices if it breaks the law, endangers the wider community and particularly the nations struggle to flatten the epidemic peak - in order to give the NHS the best possible chance of coping. Government measures are an attempt to help stop you infecting everyone in your household and wider community - many of who will be vulnerable. We are not prepared to put our sole trust in Allah and of course neither are you when it comes to it - you will be off to hospital just like everyone else!

UPDATE 15/4/20 One third of the people in hospital with coronavirus are from an ethnic minority background. It was bound to happen! 

#Coronavirus UK Governments response 13/3/20

UK government's coronavirus advice – and why it gave it

The action plan’s recommendations differed significantly from measures imposed in other countries

Coronavirus – all the developments

Boris Johnson delivered the government’s coronavirus action plan under the new “delay” phase, flanked by the UK’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, and chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, on Thursday. Here are the next steps in different areas, and the justifications they gave for them.

Schools

While school closures can be effective in the case of a flu pandemic, large-scale shutdowns are not thought to be an obvious next step in dealing with the virus in the UK, the government said. Closures would have to be at least 13 weeks long to reduce the peak of Covid-19 by 10-15%. Measures such as self-isolation for seven days for those with symptoms, as advised by the government, have been modelled and are shown to be much more effective. Experts also believe it would be difficult for school closures to work in practice, as children off school would end up socialising anyway or spending time with grandparents, who would be worse-affected by the virus. Schools will be asked to stop foreign trips.

Boris Johnson delivered the government’s coronavirus action plan under the new “delay” phase, flanked by the UK’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, and chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, on Thursday. Here are the next steps in different areas, and the justifications they gave for them.

Self Isolation

The updated guidance asks people to self-isolate at home for seven days if they have a new and persistent cough for up to four hours and a temperature of 37.8C and above. These are considered to be mild symptoms of coronavirus and people do not need to ring 111 for advice unless their condition dramatically worsens, the government said. Following this advice is thought to be an effective way of reducing the peak number of cases by up to 20%. The seven-day period is based on people being infectious just as their symptoms start to show and for a week afterwards. In the future, the government may ask a whole household to isolate for two weeks if one person is affected.

Mass gatherings

The government believes that banning large gatherings is one of the least effective measures a country can take, reducing the peak of the coronavirus by less than 5%. The virus is just as likely to spread within a smaller group such as those watching football in the pub as it would in a large crowd. Scotland has taken a different decision, banning events of more than 500 people from Monday to free up emergency services.

Older people

The illness especially affects elderly people. Most people experience five days of a viral illness but a small proportion of people, including older people and those with underlying health conditions, may have a far more serious immune response. At the moment, individual care homes will make their own decisions based on frequent government advice on how to best to protect residents. The government accepts that both care homes and nursing homes will be difficult to defend from the virus as people circulate in and out of hospital so frequently. The overall mortality rate is 1% but could be higher among elderly people.

Public fatigue

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Experts have warned consistently about the importance of not moving ahead too quickly with dramatic lifestyle changes to try to deal with the virus. Anything too onerous suggested by the government – such as a two-week isolation period for a whole household – might be adopted enthusiastically for a few weeks but then people get bored and leave their homes just as the peak of the illness hits, the government fears. A complete and immediate “lockdown” on movement could suppress the virus for a short time but it would return once measures are lifted, the government believes. Instead, the aim is to push the peak back toward the summer months and bring in more stringent measures down the line.

Flights

Donald Trump has banned citizens from 26 European Schengen area countries from travelling to the US for 30 days. The decision will not be replicated in the UK following the advice of the chief medical officer and chief scientific adviser. The measure is not effective unless 95% of flights are stopped, the government said, when in reality only 50% stoppage is likely to be achievable. If you are to fly, the World Health Organization guidance suggests the highest-risk area is the two rows in front, behind or next to an infected person.

Testing

There will now be a shift in testing. The contain phase was about isolating individual cases, getting a diagnosis and then “contact-tracing” the people they have spent time with and asking them to self-isolate. Many people will no longer be tested if they are showing mild symptoms. Instead, those with the most serious symptoms will be given a blood test in a hospital, and the NHS will move into a phase of prioritising the most seriously ill.

The peak

Scientists and medics are using this phrase a lot, and it means the highest potential rate of cases. For the UK, the peak is expected to fall in three months’ time, likely in the summer months, and tail off throughout the autumn, the government said. Vallance said that the UK is around four weeks behind Italy, where there have been 1,000 deaths and more than 15,000 cases. The peak also brings the biggest period of challenge for the NHS. There are 5,000 ventilated beds but the service is looking to increase that number. Without a cure, the main treatment is oxygen therapy, which can be provided through a mask, and the NHS is looking to increase supplies.

#EastDevonWay a Three Tenners Walk with Storm Dennis

Fuelled by the success of our Devon Coast to Coast bike ride in November - the Three Tenners - my brothers Rob and Mike and myself were looking for the next challenge.

As brothers we live geographically a fair way apart and all have busy lives so finding a date that works for all of us is not straightforward and has to be planned a fair bit in advance. We have done quite a bit of hiking together. We are not necessarily fair weather walkers and we have some good gear. We agreed the East Devon Way trail in mid February. Obviously mid Feb carries some weather risks but we are always optimistic and what is the worst that can happen?

The East Devon Way trail walk is from Lyme Regis to Exmouth. It is 40 miles - not coastal - inland and rural - Devon's rolling hills!

The East Devon Way is a marked trail - the pink Foxglove and arrows. However signposting is minimal and you feel you are in open country - which you are. We had a GPS, the 2 OS Explorer Maps (115 & 116) which covered the whole route plus the written guide. All were useful at times.

As it turned out the weather forecast for the weekend was grim. Storm Ciara had previously come through and dumped a lot of rain. Ominously Storm Denis was due. It was bound to come but when it would hit was less certain in specifics. We might get away with it but it was unlikely. The worst of the storm seemed to be due to arrive on Saturday.

We set out from Lyme Regis at 8 am on February 14th. (thank you Kay (Rob's wife) for dropping us off on Valentines Day!) Our plan was to walk to The Red Lion at Sidbury which we had booked for the night. It was 21.5 miles away. The next day we would do the second leg to Exmouth - all being well.

The weather was great when we set out. We each had our thoughts of course. Mine was we were taking on a lot - but we were hardly in The Himalayas or for that matter on Dartmoor (where more caution would be appropriate). I have done the IOW Randonee many times. It is a 26 mile walk in May. It is of course doable but it is definitely tiring. Today's walk was shorter by about 5 miles - but the weather could be a factor and I expected hard going on the trail with the weather we had recently had. And then there was 18.5 miles the next day - the storm day - realistically a big ask. Mike is always dogged but thoughtful. Rob just wants to go for it regardless. We are a fine mix - ha!

I just have to mention the start - we were lost. Broad Street Lyme Regis has two carparks East and West. We were in the wrong one! When we worked that one out we found the trail and were on our way.

The morning part of the walk was really great. There was no one around. It became wonderfully rural. There was no road noise. It was special. The route quickly - follow the River Lim out of Lyme Regis to Upwey - on to Musbury and across the very wet and boggy River Axe valley to Colyton. The wet made it hard going at times - but it is a great area. After Colyton which was about 9 miles we pressed on to Northleigh, Farway and into the back of Sidbury by about 5.30 pm. The latter part was more on narrow lanes - the weather was gloomier so not quite as lovely as the morning. We were tired - stuck to it well considering we had no long breaks as we were conscious of time. The Red Lion was a very welcome sight.

We all felt pleased with ourselves. It was a very enjoyable stop over. A double room each. Hot bath - beer and the Valentines menu - lol! The locals could not quite make us out - but we had a good laugh especially as the pub really filled up. A very good place to be. My brothers had the good sense to go to bed at a reasonable time but alas I was still there to hear last orders.

Hanging over us was what to do next day. Some of the locals thought we would be mad to attempt the second leg because the forecast for Storm Denis was bad and was arriving. We were all up for it despite being tired - who likes to fail when you say you are going to do something? My thoughts were the cold and wet were not going to kill us - we were never going to be that far from civilisation - ha! Tiredness was just tiredness, However at the same time there was no sense in being irresponsible. My main concern was the wind forecast and resulting tree damage,

After discussion we agree to give it a go and keep under review. However we made the decision to use country lanes to in theory avoid the worst of the wet conditions which delayed us so much. We had a fantastic English breakfast and set out early on an inclement morning with the likelihood of it getting much worse.

We moved along Indian file each in our own thoughts. There was not much traffic but enough to be a concern. The lanes were full of surface water - with some huge puddles at times. It was raining so we had hoods up. It was windy making approaching vehicles hard to hear. To cut to the chase - it wasn't much fun. We were vulnerable on the road. The heavy rain would have made the full designated trail an unrealistic option I think. We considered getting on to the coastal footpath but Mike knew it well and felt if the wind came in as forecast it would not be sensible to try walking into it.

So in the end common sense prevailed. We walked about 6 miles and bused back from Sidmouth to Exmouth. We all agreed it was probably the right decision. It was definitely the sensible one. However you cannot get away from the fact that we did not finish it and I know my bothers well enough to know this bothered them. I feel irritated now even writing it - but the weather did deteriorate significantly. Anyway we live to fight another day - ha!

The three of us definitely feel as Devon lads that the East Devon Way is a hidden gem. We will do it again and finish it properly next time. It was great to be out with my bruvs - it is always special - and the great thing is we all three recognise it as such. Our families love to see us do things together and we are grateful for their support. Our mum and dad are very sadly no longer with us but it is undoubtedly a tribute to them that their three boys are out there together. Fantastic. xxx

Rob and Mike first morning

Rob and Mike. Lovely walking between Upwey and Musbury.

Hard to avoid wet feet.

Rob didn't - but slow going.

Afternoon 1st day

early 2nd morning after a full English - weather coming in.