#Leadership PT3 the 3 circles - John Adair's Action Centred Leadership

This is the last of the pearls of wisdom on leadership - ha! I am passing them on - because they have been useful to me.

In the first blog I wrote about theory X and Y leadership styles - and in the second about the decision making process. This short 3rd blog brings them together I hope,

This blog is about John Adair's 3 circles leadership model (although for a much more detailed and comprehensive account you should read his Action Centred Leadership books). Apparently John Adair taught leadership at the British Army's officer training college at Sandhurst in the 1960's. I came across Action Centred Leadership through The Industrial Society in the mid 1970's. At the time I was an instructor at Lloyds Bank Training College at Hindhead, Surrey. The Bank incorporated it in their training - to try and improve "management" skills. Anyway I bought into it as something simple and practical.

The essence of ACL is demonstrated in a simple diagram - John Adair's 3 circles approach to leadership.

The original basic diagram

Adair says there are three components to effective leadership represented by the 3 circles. A précis summary explanation of his ACL model :-

• The TASK is at the top because it is the objective - the raison d'etre.
• The task is achieved by the TEAM and by individuals
• The team is made up of INDIVIDUALS
• The diagram demonstrates the TASK, TEAM and INDIVIDUAL circles overlap - they affect each other.

Adair explains that while the Task is the raison d'etre - to function effectively and for the optimum achievement of the task the three circles have to be held in BALANCE and that is the job of an effective leader to achieve.

Understanding balance is important. Too much attention in one area or too little can undermine effective leadership. ACL does not require a leader to put the same amount of time into each area - but emphasizes if a leader is only TASK orientated Team or Individual morale might suffer and be out of balance and therefore affect the achievement of the task. An effective leader will recognize when team matters need attention or where an individual within the team needs support etc.

There are many examples of where the 3 circles could be described as out of balance. Here are a few - but the list is not exhaustive of course.

• An individual has a personal problem and not performing properly. It is affecting both the team performance and the achievement of the task. The leader needs to rebalance somehow. This might include for instance - getting rid - reassigning - disciplining - training - counselling etc etc - whatever the leader does it should be about reestablishing balance.
• However the leader might over indulge individuals - he might have favorites - divided loyalties. Out of balance - detrimental to team and task.
• The team might be dysfunctional for some reason. Why? It needs attention. The team might be over indulged. The leader might be soft on discipline to be popular. There might be a bully in the team - or poor communication. Pay might be an issue. Team needs are out of balance. An effective leader needs to recognize when and do something about it.
• The Team and the individual are happy but the task is not getting done. Too much emphasis on team and individual perhaps? Too many bonding days - too much social activity - too much time spent understanding personal wants and needs.

The list above does not give answers to how to balance the 3 circles - ACL is primarily the leader recognizing  the importance of achieving balance between task team and individual - because the are intertwined and effect each other positively or negatively.

For what it is worth in my businesses I see the staff team and individuals within the team as batteries driving the business - and it is up to me to keep those batteries charged up so they give off full power to get the task done.

#Leadership PT2 tells sells consults

This is PT 2 of my 3 planned blogs about leadership. In this one I am covering decision making - a key factor in effective leadership of course.

It sounds like a bit of slick management speak jargon - but tells, sells, consults succinctly sums up the points I wish to make.

Autocratic leaders make all the decisions and tell their team what they are going to do.

Semi autocratic leaders make the decisions but sell their ideas to their team.

Consultative leaders seek opinions and group decisions emerge.

So what are the advantages and disadvantages of each :

Tells - a quick, clear decision - but one that excludes the input of other team members. Possible downsides of exclusion - ownership of the decision and the effect on motivation, not utilizing the input of team members which might be valuable and leaving the team vulnerable if for some reason the leader is not there. There are others of course.

Sells - can be a slower process and the leader might "open a can of worms". However sells will go some way to mitigate the downside of tells.

Consults - tells in reverse.

A good leader will understand the advantages and disadvantages of these three basic approaches to decision making and determine which is the most appropriate for each particular circumstance and shape his/her approach accordingly. A poor leader will only have one approach. This might work in the short term - depending on circumstances but over the long term a one size fits all approach is unlikely to be optimum or even effective. This is certainly true in parenting when factors such as personal development against tiredness have to be taken into account

As an example - in an emergency situation - where speed of action is the essence - a tells strategy is required. For example on a sailing boat the skipper will often not have the time to consult his crew before a tack or gybe and certainly not in a man over board drill or a fire down below.

On a hike the leader might have more time to explain his choice of route and timings and there might be benefits that accrue from that. If I was honest this is my favored approach or default position. I am a seller. Often I use the line - "if I was on my own I would do this". I am open to some discussion. Being challenged or tested can often result in a better decision.

A consultative approach can demonstrate both strong - confident leadership or weak - indecisive leadership. It certainly can be more creative - more collaborative - more fun and more rewarding for everyone involved - but you need the luxury of time but also good time management because some committees will talk all day! For instance I have found as my family have grown up this approach has become more and more appropriate in family matters and increasingly I am happy to pass the baton - despite the fact my wonderful offspring still somewhat doubt it - ha!

#Leadership PT1 theory X & Y

In the preamble to my recent Darwinism blog I wrote about distilling down experiences to form a philosophy or at least an insight into what makes things tick - or the world go around - ha!

Here are a few thoughts about leadership that make sense to me. We are all leaders at sometime in our life - even if just as parents. We are also led. So understanding something about the dynamics of leadership is helpful.

I am not going to tackle the old chestnut - "are leaders born or made" but I am going to cover 3 aspects of leadership in 3 separate blogs. Part 1 I will call theory X & Y. I don't know whose original theory it is - it is certainly not mine - and I am not claiming it is. I do not remember where I came across it. I will say it encapsulates an insight about people that good and effective leaders utilize spontaneously. Whoever wrote the theory put into words what many people inherently understand - but some don't.

This is my précis - my simplification of theory X & Y as it relates to leadership/management - which of course much of day to day life is about. Here goes :-

Everyone is actually drawn to being either a theory X or a theory Y personality.

Theory X people - are natural task managers. Getting the job done is their focus. Single minded. No nonsense. No excuses. No shirking.

In an employment situation and in a more negative sense theory X's often believe their team will shirk if they can , they avoid responsibility if they can and are mainly motivated by money. 

Theory Y people - are empathetic - people persons. Their focus is typically not so obviously task orientated - and more directed to individual and team needs - maybe in the belief you get more out of the team or the individual if they are happy or understood.(or the leader is popular/liked.)

In an employment situation and in a more positive sense theory Y's often believe money reward is a poor motivator (it often is over the longer term if imbursement is already adequate), that people want to enjoy their work and will take on responsibility readily.

In a nutshell

Theory X leaders do get the task done - but at what cost to morale and therefore to individual and/or team sustainability. Do they get the best out of people?

Theory Y leaders might not get the task done or done so efficiently or profitably because they have been indulging their team members instead of remembering why they are there. However the converse can very easily be true. They do get the task done in a sustainable way because happy and engaged individuals and a integrated team can be much more effective - especially in the longer term.

THE KEY LESSON

Recognize 2 things :-

1) That you are naturally either theory X or Y when placed in a supervisory/management/leadership role.

2) That at different times and in different situations you need to modify your natural theory bias because the other will be more effective.

Put simply there are situations where you need a Theory X approach - others a Theory Y and the most effective leaders understand that and make the transition naturally.

As an example - in an emergency situation - you definitely need to be task orientated - but in other situations more collaborative perhaps. Maybe carrot or stick is a good descriptor.

PRACTICAL THOUGHTS

Parenthood - there is a time for understanding and indulging - there is a time to give your kids a good shove which they will eventually benefit from. For myself I am always inclined to say well done to my children and be supportive - because self confidence and strong self esteem is so important - but I also recognize that at times it is in their interest to say I am disappointed and you have to try harder - or something a bit stronger - get your bloody finger out and start putting some real effort in - to short term resentment and sulks!. Not easy - ha!.

I read something the other day that parents are too often doing their offspring a disservice by constantly praising them and telling them they are the best in the world - because when they enter the world of work they abruptly discover they are not and consequently cannot cope. We also know some parents press their children too hard - are too results focused - and this can ultimately lead to all sorts of issues including outright rebellion and the breaking down of relationships. Tough love has its place - it is just when and how.

In a work or sports environment a leader sometimes requires a ruthless streak - not a natural disposition to adopt for some - but sooner or later it will have to be found - or sink. On the other hand a leader that demands 110% all day everyday without subtlety will likely burn out his staff and cause resentment.

OVERALL

It seems to me an understanding of theory X & Y will make you a more effective leader but perhaps just as importantly it will maybe make you a more effective team member as you will have a better insight into the dynamics of the situation you are in.

#marathon "monkeyonmyback" - PT6 Farnborough Winter Half Marathon

On Sunday I ran the Farnborough Winter Half Marathon with Jo and about 2000 other people. This was the first staging of the Farnborough Winter Half Marathon and I entered as part of my training program aimed at running my first (and last) marathon - the Paris Marathon on 9th April. (see previous monkeyonmyback blogs).

First of all a bit about my running - and then a bit about the event itself.

On 13th January I ran 10 miles with Jo - and I felt it went pretty well and I finished strongly. I then puzzled what I should do running wise between then and the Farnborough run. What would be optimum to peak on the day? I have found I lose optimum running fitness quickly - so I felt I had to keep running - but at the same time my legs are constantly aching - so how much rest would be right. In the end I ran 4 miles on 16th and 17th and 1.4 miles on 19th and 21st. I am not sure I got this right - because in the last 3 miles of Farnborough my legs pretty much seized and my finish was diabolical. (but there might have been another reason - going too fast initially).

The Farnborough run started at 9am on a freezing morning - literally -6 at one point while driving - but it was a beautiful bright sunny morning. Such an early start required an early rise - before 6am in our case because we had to allow 80 minutes for the drive. An early start presents challenges in terms of preparation - normal ablutions routines etc and breakfast of course. The other issue for me and all the runners - was what to wear given the cold - but with the knowledge you can warm up rapidly when you start running and can therefore be problematically over dressed.

The answer I guess is to try and keep things as "normal" as possible - so coffee/tea and bananas for me. Toilet was more problematic. There were porta loos on site - the problem was it was so cold the flushing mechanisms were not working - no need to say more! From a running kit point of view I have been a late convert to lycra. It is the answer - light - warm - easy to wear and I didn't over heat. These things are far more important than appearance. Some people were definitely over dressed and a number were disposing of clothes on route. Hopefully this will not be an issue in Paris!

Based on the 10 mile training run I did, I set a loose target of 2.20. (previously I would have been very happy with that). Jo set hers at 2.10. The Farnborough course was described as predominantly flat and with the extra lift from being in a mass organized event with spectators - I felt positive on the start.

Despite it not being premeditated or being initially conscious of it I set off at a pace faster than my norm - being carried along by the pack so to speak - and because I felt I was going ok. I ran the first 5 miles in just under 47 minutes and I started calculating a better time in my head. Was this a mistake given what happened in the last 3 miles? Gradually I naturally began to slow - and was particularly thrown by the off road forest track at around 6 miles - because the path was stony and the ground frozen and it was like running on uneven cobbles and this definitely didn't help my knees. However I was still going well and had to be pleased.

At around 10 miles however my legs really started to stiffen - if not cramping. My knees were increasingly painful under my kneecaps. Gradually I slowed. Around this point I was passed by the sub 2.15 banner and could not hang on - it was physically not possible - it was not really mind over matter. Some people use the walk and run tactic. It might be effective - but it is not for me. I kept running. Not stopping is the ONLY thing that keeps me going. This is the great thing about the challenge of running. Between 11 and 12 miles there was a detour down to a roundabout with runners coming up the other side. Psychologically this is quite hard. It was especially hard because coming back was up a hill to the 12 mile point. This was a low point for me - I was feeling disappointed and sorry for myself and very conscious of runners passing me. There was a particularly memorable moment - I was running at the bottom of the hill on my own. A young policeman was out of his car - and he said to me very deliberately - he could see I was struggling I think - he said "well done sir - you should be proud of yourself ". I will admit I choked on that - almost a tear. I should feel proud - getting closer to 63 - and not really a running pedigree. It helped. Anyway I got home. The spectators were great - genuinely very supportive and encouraging. Many of them were race runners who finished long before - the winner was 1 hour 12 minutes - well over an hour faster than me! I think they looked on in pity - ha! - not really - they have been there - runners respect runners for the effort they are putting in whatever their level. The last 1/4 mile was very well spectated and then turn into the finish under the frame of the Airship Hangar - with the music and razmataz and a mixture of real relief - hidden tears and smiles and hugs! 2 hours 21 minutes. Jo was there right at the finish to hold me up. She had run a fantastic 2 hours 4 minutes and apart from some aching hips was full of beans - and quite rightly so. A great effort.

On reflection I have to be pleased if for no other reason than I finished. Thoughts of faster times were nonsense or at least hit the buffers hard. Did I pay at the end for going too fast at the beginning? The answer is I do not know. I suspect it was more to do with the lead up preparation. However pacing is a big issue especially in a marathon - so I will have to be careful of that. One thing to remind myself - my objective is to run the marathon course without stopping and this is far more important to me than getting home in a particular time. My final thought is I have to be ultra positive despite the reality - I was out on my legs at the end of 13 miles and I will be required to do double that on April 9th. This does not seem possible - but there is training to be done - and it is possible because millions of people have done it and will continue to do it. I must be one of them to get this "monkeyoffmyback". Next February 19th - the Bramley 20 miles (what a dreadful thought!) and I will be working at it.

A few observations about the Farnborough Winter Half Marathon itself. It was exceptionally well organized. It was a large event with atmosphere - 2000 runners - but not so massive as to present crowding issues. It was definitely a runners run. It was not a "fun" runners event. I would say the standard was pretty high - no one in fancy dress or messing around. They were earnest in PB terms. The course was fair and as I have said people around the course and particularly the marshals were genuinely encouraging and meaningfully supportive. Excellent.

A final thought. It was great at the end as it always is when you put a lot of effort into something. Jo and I got home - feeling quietly satisfied and happy. Can a hot sweet tea ever taste so good. A hot bath - more tea - some Old Speckled Hen - a wonderful roast beef dinner that really hit the spot - (thank you Jo) - and then some lounging around in front of the TV. Everything seemed spectacularly lovely - because there was this wonderful feeling of having earned it and finally feeling sated and smug. Hoorah - bring on the next one!

Knees hurting

Hard going

Glad its the finishing line coming up.

The start and finish point under the Airship Hangar Farnborough

#NewYearsDay Alderbury & the New Forest

It is good to get the New Year off to a positive start. It is always a dilemma - a late night and quite likely an indulgent night leading into the New Year - and the likely outcome - jaded for the first page of 2017!

This year the balance was struck about right. Some exuberant and stylish show dancing to the Rolling Stones - was followed (and now in the cold light of day - ha!)  by some slightly cringeworthy moves to Diana Ross's fantastic motown tracks! This inevitably led to a rather careful start to 2017 proper. It was a slowish rise (although I did go for a short walk in the garden around 8am - but then thought maybe bed again for a while would be a good idea) followed by a wonderful cooked breakfast around mid morning.

The weather on the morning of January 1st 2017 was lovely. Clear and crisp. Alas when we eventually were ready to set off on a planned bike ride the skies had begun to darken and the weather had deteriorated to cold drizzle. It would have been easy not to go - but we had the right gear - we had planned to go - and as I said it is good for the soul to launch the New Year with a positive start. So we went. We went on our cycle ride - when most people appeared to stay indoors - as we hardly saw anyone in the 3 hours we were riding.

Alderbury is a real village - a leafy village 3 miles south east of Salisbury. The village is surrounded by woodland, bridleways and lanes that lead down to the New Forest. This was our route. We made our way up onto The Ridge - slippery - and at times hard going but it was just what we needed. I remember we cycled through the picturesque villages of  Lover, Redlynch, Woodfalls and North Chafford into the north of the New Forest. It was quiet and lovely and atmospheric. It was also raining and cold and therefore a disincentive to take any photos but once or twice I prised off my gloves and there are one or two mob photos below as a happy memory.

Eventually in the gloaming we get to Telegraph Hill - one of the highest points in the New Forest at 419 feet. It was then a vigorous ride back to Alderbury for well earned warmth and sustenance.

It was really great to be out there. To return damp and cold but knowing it was a good thing to have done - especially on the first day of the New Year. It is a great feeling when your cold cheeks start to tingle as they gradually warm up from the heat of the fire. A wonderful hot shower - appetite mega back and feeling full of beans - even a real ale would not go amiss - a major turnaround from earlier in the morning - ha!.

We reflected on our ride over dinner. One of our plans is to cycle from John-o-Groats to Lands End later in the year. The enormity of the task we are proposing to undertake certainly hits home - but we are not daunted - the opposite - we are mega motivated - it will happen (touchwood!).

New Forest scenes

#type2diabetes

We are an increasingly unhealthy nation despite the fact mortality rates are reducing. We are on average living longer because of advancements in medical treatments but quality of life is in a vast number of cases is diminishing.

One issue increasingly being flagged up is the phenomenon of common place obesity and its direct link to Type 2 diabetes and many other ailments.

Figures recently released show that Type 2 Diabetes leads to 22000 premature deaths in the UK every year and costs the NHS £8 billion per year. In the UK 3.2 million people have Type 2 diabetes and that number is predicted to rise to 5 million by 2025.

This is a vast issue - a huge expense that could break the NHS.

How to deal with it? Some people argue that people have an obligation to society to make an attempt to help themselves by reducing their weight as a condition of treatment. Type 2 diabetes is after all mainly self inflicted. It is mainly caused by eating too much and not exercising enough. Some argue it is a result of laziness, slothfulness and ignorant behaviour in the face of well understood health advice. Others see it as more complex. Of course one can argue similar statistics can be flagged against the use of cigarettes and alcohol and this is true - but it does not diminish the issue.

Whatever the strategy employed the fact is this massive problem exists and is increasing. I think society DOES need to take a firmer line on its view towards obesity. Smoking has become anti social, as has using mobile phones while driving and excessive drinking (while still a major problem) is not considered acceptable behaviour anymore. You can argue obesity is anti social behaviour too and should be viewed as such. Right now however it seems to be going the other way and obese body shapes are becoming normalised and we no longer recognise them for what they are. This might be catastrophic both at a personal and societal level because of its long-term health implications.

I have downloaded some information about the impact of avoidable (self inflicted) Type 2 Diabetes :

TYPE 2 DIABETES

High glucose levels can damage blood vessels, nerves and organs. Even a mildly raised glucose level that doesn't cause any symptoms can have long-term damaging effects.

Heart disease and stroke

If you have diabetes, you're up to five times more likely to develop heart disease or have a stroke.
Prolonged, poorly controlled blood glucose levels increase the likelihood of atherosclerosis, where the blood vessels become clogged up and narrowed by fatty substances.
This may result in poor blood supply to your heart, causing angina, which is a dull, heavy or tight pain in the chest.
It also increases the chance that a blood vessel in your heart or brain will become blocked, leading to a heart attack or stroke.

Nerve damage

High blood glucose levels can damage the tiny blood vessels in your nerves.
This can cause a tingling or burning pain that spreads from your fingers and toes up through your limbs. It can also cause numbness, which can lead to ulceration of the feet.
Damage to the peripheral nervous system, which includes all parts of the nervous system that lie outside the central nervous system, is known as peripheral neuropathy.
If the nerves in your digestive system are affected, you may experience nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea or constipation.

Diabetic retinopathy

Diabetic retinopathy is when the retina, the light-sensitive layer of tissue at the back of the eye, becomes damaged.
Blood vessels in the retina can become blocked or leaky, or can grow haphazardly. This prevents light fully passing through to your retina. If it isn't treated, it can damage your vision.
Annual eye checks are usually organised by a regional photographic unit. If significant damage is detected, you may be referred to a doctor who specialises in treating eye conditions (ophthalmologist).
The better you control your blood glucose levels, the lower your risk of developing serious eye problems.
Diabetic retinopathy can be managed using laser treatment if it's caught early enough. However, this will only preserve the sight you have rather than improve it.

Kidney disease

If the small blood vessels of your kidney become blocked and leaky, your kidneys will work less efficiently.
It's usually associated with high blood pressure, and treating this is a key part of management.
In rare, severe cases, kidney disease can lead to kidney failure. This can mean a kidney replacement, treatment with dialysis or sometimes kidney transplantation becomes necessary.

Foot problems

Damage to the nerves of the foot can mean small nicks and cuts aren't noticed and this, in combination with poor circulation, can lead to a foot ulcer.
About 1 in 10 people with diabetes get a foot ulcer, which can cause a serious infection.
If you have diabetes, look out for sores and cuts that don't heal, puffiness or swelling, and skin that feels hot to the touch. You should also have your feet examined at least once a year.
If poor circulation or nerve damage is detected, check your feet every day and report any changes to your doctor, nurse or podiatrist.
Read more about foot care and diabetes.

Sexual dysfunction

In men with diabetes, particularly those who smoke, nerve and blood vessel damage can lead to erection problems. This can usually be treated with medication.
Women with diabetes may experience:

• a reduced sex drive (loss of libido)
• less pleasure from sex
• vaginal dryness
• less ability to orgasm
• pain during sex

If you experience a lack of vaginal lubrication or find sex painful, you can use a vaginal lubricant or a water-based gel.

Miscarriage and stillbirth

Pregnant women with diabetes have an increased risk of miscarriage and stillbirth.
If your blood glucose level isn't carefully controlled during the early stages of pregnancy, there's also an increased risk of the baby developing a birth defect.
Pregnant women with diabetes will usually have their antenatal check-ups in hospital or a diabetic clinic, ideally with a doctor who specialises in pregnancy care (an obstetrician).
This will allow your care team to keep a close eye on your blood glucose levels and control your insulin dosage more easily, as well as monitoring the growth and development of your baby.
The Diabetes UK website has more information about diabetes complications.

Looking after your eyes

The NHS diabetic eye screening programme will arrange for you to have your eyes checked every year.
Everyone who is on a diabetes register will be given the opportunity to have a digital picture taken of the back of their eye. Speak to your GP to register.

#Darwinism - population growth - a clash

So we are into 2017 - just back from my morning bike ride. Feeling philosophical. This is what I have been thinking about this morning. It is wide ranging so I am going to try to package it up over the next few days.

Over life's journey we gradually work out - maybe distill down - our own philosophy. Gradually certainties of youth are tempered by life's experience, observation and learning - and eventually what is true - what we see as really important and what makes us happy. What we come up with might not be right - it might be convenient - it might be disingenuous and self serving - but on the other hand you might have acquired a worthwhile wisdom that is valuable and fosters an inner peace and happiness from understanding. Of course I feel the latter - ha!.

One of the important things in life is context. It is the ability to understand what is happening and why and to some extent understand the trends and where it is likely to lead. It helps shape expectation. It often gives ground for optimism. It also means you will not be disappointed. For me it gives me an inner strength - I cannot describe it as more than that. Maybe it allows you to be philosophical.

Gradually I will describe the building blocks I use. In this blog I am writing about the cornerstone - the key stone - Darwinism - and then the likely impact of population growth on the future.

I believe in Darwinian theory. It is impossible not to if you are objective. To deny we are animals is ridiculous. To deny we have evolved is ignorant. So my cornerstone is human beings are animals and like everything in nature the determining force is "survival of the fittest". Of course as sophisticated human beings we often (or in some cases - always) believe we have risen above base animal behaviour and that we are too compassionate, too aware, too good (maybe too religious), too liberal, too caring and too intelligent to be "animals". I do not. I believe we might battle to temper our animal instincts - to mask them and to try and deny naively that survival of the fittest is not the base motivator - but I see almost everything good and bad in this animal context.

What is amazing to me is we have all watched David Attenborough and yet still deny Darwin or at least fail to acknowledge the primordial motivation of "survival of the fittest" in human kind. We have all seen life unfold - the family unit - the strength of the pack collective. The exploitation of weakness. The consequences of failing to adapt. We have all seen winners and losers in the jungle and on the prairie. We have also seen peaceful happy co existence. We have watched what happens when numbers become too large and how nature adjusts. There is conflict in all parts of the world. The root cause ultimately is base animal instinct and behavior and much of this is to do with overcrowding and lack of or control of the resources required to sustain and improve human existence. Animal behavior is stimulated by insecurity and fear. We are part of this cycle - we are not above it - it can happen here and we are building problems for the next generation. The prevailing feeling is insecurity in an increasingly overcrowded and globalized world.

A quick summary of population growth and trends. In the last 30 years the world's population has grown by 30%. The SE of England is the most densely populated area of the EU and despite its size its geographical size it is predicted the UK will have the largest population in the EU by 2030/35.

From Wiki  "Global human population growth amounts to around 75 million annually, or 1.1% per year. The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 7 billion in 2012. It is expected to keep growing, and estimates have put the total population at 8.4 billion by mid-2030, and 9.6 billion by mid-2050."

Of course Thomas Malthus wrote about "the Malthusian Trap" and "the Malthusian Catastrophe" in his Essay on Population in the 18th century. Many have argued he was wrong because of mans ingenuity. I think he will be proved right.

If you put Darwin and the "survival of the fittest" with "over population" what are you going to get. There is only one answer and it is not a happy scenario.

My conclusion is the only thing that can secure a brighter future for us in the UK - for human kind - and the planet overall for that matter - is political change and particularly the political engagement of the young people of today waking up and really thinking about where we are heading and changing it. Hopefully this will happen. Maybe it will out of common necessity. In the UK it is obvious. We have a lot going for us. (I can't resist - Brexit is a very positive decision for us if properly implemented). But we have inexorably, indifferently and carelessly  become over crowded and it is getting worse. There is neither the space (if you value the environment), jobs (AI & the demise of High Street retail will make this worse), houses, infrastructure or support systems to cope (because we cannot afford it as a nation). We have to stop making the problem worse. The one certain thing we do not need is more people. There are billions of people out there in the world increasingly competing with us for jobs, tax revenues, resources, water, fuel and food. They are not complacent like so many of our citizens. (underpinned by the Welfare State - fully versed in "entitlement" - and casual in donating and giving away what they have not actually earned or at least contributed much in creating. That was done by their forbears - who battled through two world wars amongst many other struggles..) They are hungry and motivated. Unlike us they are not taking the status quo for granted. Unlike us they are not resting on their laurels as the world population is increasing exponentially. The predicted increases are frightening and terrifying if you believe in global warming climate predictions and the effect it will have on the planet and its animals of which the human animals are the most vulnerable.

It is obvious to me that the human animals rubbing up against us will increasingly want what we have. They will take it by one way or another if we let them. (and they will not stop at a reasonable equilibrium - life is not like that - you can see it all around). It is happening now. It has been for years and it is gathering momentum. It is a battle for survival. It is a battle for us - our pride - our family - our pack - our community. If you do not understand that you are naïve. (and it is "cool" to be naïve - because of course we are sophisticated - just one big live and let live family sharing the planet together.) It is why I believe we should have the vigorous and consistent application of our laws and why I have so much trouble reconciling "liberal values" with reality. Without law and order - we would have "the law of the jungle" and that of course says it all about human kind and our animal realities.

At the end of the day - while you can try and do your bit - to live a responsible life - and influence the world around you - ultimately all that really matters is you and your family - and then your community. This is our natural instinct. Everything else is secondary. I am concerned for the future because the liberal elite and big business have such a dominant hold on our society and common (lazy) thinking. A change is necessary or I am pessimistic about mankind's future. Have you noticed where I choose to live - I am concerned it is not remote enough!