#Brexit Article 50 triggered - what next?

Yesterday Article 50 was served. The UK is leaving the EU (although of course there are a few who are now arguing the process is reversible).

For the democratic majority it has always been simple. The people voted in a binding democratic referendum to repatriate the powers previously handed over (or gradually but inexorably assumed by the EU as it moves undemocratically from a trading block to a full political federation)  in order that once again we become a truly sovereign nation - responsible for our own law, money and borders. It was not primarily an economic decision - it was a decision to be free to shape our own destiny - to stand on our own two feet rather than be burdened by the dead weight of EU bureaucracy, their meddling in our way of life in matters that should not concern them and limiting our ability to engage with the wider world. It was an optimistic decision - a brave decision - a decision that underlined our self belief as a nation and eventually only good will come of it - of that I am certain.

However there are some who can only see this momentous decision in economic terms - and short term economic terms at that. In order to do so they have convinced themselves they can somehow set aside the democratic referendum result - or marginalize it - or skew the message it sent (like leave yes - but the referendum never stated what leave meant - when it was totally clear the public voted to become sovereign again - and not half sovereign.)

So what now?

The UK does not believe the EU project leading towards further political integration is right for us. We want out - we have never been fully in. However that does not mean we wish the EU ill - we just want a different type of future. We want to be good neighbors and co exist together in harmony for the mutual good. We see no reason why we shouldn't be able to trade with each other sensibly and reasonably - trade from which everyone will benefit.

However it is clear the EU is now primarily a political entity - not a trading one. The politics in the EU are in turmoil and there is a great deal of unrest. The EU project has so many problems. Those EU politicians most deeply invested in the EU project are fighting for survival and may well feel a UK doing well outside the EU will undermine future cohesion of the EU project and therefore will do everything they can to undermine the UK. Germany and France have the most to lose of course.

Therefore I expect the news coming out of the EU to appear initially negative towards UK leave - and this will cause political pressures at home and embolden the remoaners. There will be ups and downs not least over the so called divorce settlement. (we are a net contributor of over £10 billion pa. The EU will have to find this money elsewhere unless they can prise it out of us. I have no idea what a fair figure would be regarding ongoing liabilities we have signed up to - I also have no idea of assets we could legitimately claim to offset). This will be very contentious as it is a matter of disputed legal opinion about the obligation for future liability and what it comprises of.) At the end of the day the British electorate will expect the EU to act fairly and reasonably. If there is a sense that the EU wish to punish us out of malice - then the bull dog spirit will be to back our government - accept the pain - and get on with building our future with the rest of the world. (No deal better than a bad deal).

However :

My own view is the problems in the EU are going to increasingly hit the fan - and those problems will underpin (bolster the UK electorate in support of leave) in the UK the good sense of the UK decision and lead the EU to accept cutting off their noses to spite the UK through penal trading terms makes no sense. The EU is going to have massive budgetary issues to deal with so why make it worse? (see below).

The issues that will come to the fore in the EU are :-

• Elections in France & Germany will weaken the hand of the EU federalists. Consequently there might be more emphasis on the importance of trade rather than a further move to political union and the UK will be offered a decent and sensible trade deal.
• The migrant issue will re-emerge on the borders of the EU as the weather improves. Merkel's policy will further unravel and cause great tensions within EU countries many of whom do not want to accept more migrants. One way or another there will be very significant financial costs to the EU in dealing with this issue which they have contrived to exacerbate.
• The Southern Europe economies continue to struggle or worse - the euro debt crisis has not been dealt but fudged. It will re-emerge and further massive bailouts will be required.
• The American's are contemptuous of the EU's reliance on American money to underpin the defense of Europe and this will have to change at great cost to the EU economies.
• The American's are not well disposed to a trade deal with the EU as a block - they see the EU primarily as a project to serve the best interests of the Germans. This will bring about change.

Sooner or later Theresa May will win a landslide victory in a general election which will place a final seal on the Brexit democratic decision.  

#OldSarum

The other day Jo and I headed out on our bikes for some fresh air and exercise. We cycled from Alderbury - skirting Salisbury itself - to the ancient hill top settlement of Old Sarum. When Jo suggested the ride as a good one to do I readily agreed - not knowing much about Old Sarum - other than it was an "old" settlement and on a hill! It is only subsequently that I have done a bit of research.

Old Sarum certainly was a "good one to do"! It was a steady climb on our bikes - not especially hard to do - but what a spectacular view from the top. The views are 360 degrees panoramic - the county of Wiltshire and beyond spread out all around below. It is easy to understand why the site was so strategically significant and why its catalogued history is so fascinating.

The site is now managed by English Heritage and their public information boards provide information about the history of the site - making it not too hard to imagine what it might have been like in centuries past. There really was a massive sense of history there - despite the fact that only remnants of original buildings now exist.

I have downloaded an extract from Wiki :

Old Sarum is the site of the earliest settlement of Salisbury in England. Located on a hill about 2 miles (3 km) north of modern Salisbury, the settlement appears in some of the earliest records in the country. It is an English Heritage property and is open to the public.The great monoliths of Stonehenge and Avebury were erected nearby and indications of prehistoric settlement have been discovered from as early as 3000 BC. An Iron Age hill fort was erected around 400 BC, controlling the intersection of two native trade paths and the Hampshire Avon. The site continued to be occupied during the Roman period, when the paths became roads. The Saxons took the British fort in the 6th century and later used it as a stronghold against marauding Vikings. The Normans constructed a motte and bailey castle, a stone curtain wall, and a great cathedral. A royal palace was built within the castle for King Henry I and was subsequently used by Plantagenet monarchs. This heyday of the settlement lasted for around 300 years until disputes between the Wiltshire sheriff and the Salisbury bishop finally led to the removal of the church into the nearby plain. As New Salisbury grew up around the construction site for the new cathedral in the early 13th century, the buildings of Old Sarum were dismantled for stone and the old town dwindled. Its long-neglected castle was abandoned by Edward II in 1322 and sold by Henry VIII in 1514.

As is so often the case my visit to the Old Sarum site was of limited time - nominal - cursory. In some ways it would be wonderful to really put some time in - to focus on a place like this - as some people do of course. Time - time - too many choices - too many options - in todays modern world. ( I will do it when I am old - ha!) But every time you go somewhere like this you do get something out of it - apart from some wonderful air and scenery. I have spent some restful quiet time thinking about the construction of the massive moat and motte and bailey - how it was done - what an incredible physical effort it must have been. Obviously the Old Sarum site offered a wonderful hill top strategic site - but concentric moats and a motte and bailey were subsequently constructed. I now know the motte is a flat toped hill (mound) often constructed from the materials excavated from the digging of the moat. On top of the motte - sat a walled enclosure to protect the keep - and within the keep - the bailey - a fortified tower or castle. 

So - maybe 4500 years of continuous habitation on this site - incredible when you think about it. We very obviously walked on the same turf that iron age people have walked on - that Romans and Saxons and Vikings and Normans have walked on. I wonder who were our forbears? Wow!

A model of the site in Norman times

An ariel view of the site as it is today.

From the natural hilltop there is a fantastic 360 degree view. Salisbury Cathedral in the distance.

The motte - and remnants of the Bailey on the top. From this angle you cannot see the moat. 

How the original "cathedral" might have looked at Old Sarum

#ForeignnationalprisonersheldintheUK @30th January 2017

More good reasons why we need to control our borders and have a vigourous points based system for inward migration. Criminality should mean total loss of the right to be here and trump any other human right which are so often used to avoid deportation.

The cost to the nation of uncontrolled immigration and an over arching interpretation of individual human rights has cost us billions and detracted massively from our society and way of life. Hopefully with Brexit we can achieve a clear out of the ridiculous number of undesireables that have been able to come here under the nonsense of free movement of people.


See the link to the Justice Dept. https://www.justice.gov.uk/offenders/types-of-offender/foreign

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-39177620

Foreign national prisoners

In the last ten years the number of foreign nationals in prison has doubled and now represents over 14% of the total prison population in England and Wales. There are a huge range of nationalities and languages to be considered alongside the cultural and religious diversity that the foreign nationals already bring.

Prison staff are taking a proactive role in coping with their differing needs. Many establishments hold regular meetings between staff and prisoners to discuss the challenges facing foreign nationals, such as immigration status, staying in contact with family, language difficulties and resettlement. Some prisons produce magazines providing helpful advice and points of contact for prisoners during their time in custody. In addition to this, the invaluable booklet 'Information and Advice for Foreign National Prisoners' is available across the estate in 22 languages and contains substantial information on issues including prison regimes, support organisations and contacting families.

The Prison Service has worked hard to build closer relationships with Embassies and High Commissions, some of whom provide their own literature catering directly for their imprisoned citizens, as well as consular assistance.

The Prison Service and the UK Border Agency have been working together during the last 18 months to ensure that foreign nationals' immigration status is dealt with before their earliest release date. This has helped to ease the worries of many prisoners who were concerned when they would be removed from the United Kingdom. The UK Border Agency is also working to transfer a greater number of time expired prisoners from Prison Service establishments to Immigration Removal Centres.

In addition to the normal removal at the end of sentence, a prisoner can return home up to 135 days early by the Early Removal Scheme. Many foreign nationals are able to be repatriated to serve the remainder of their sentence in their home country. This enables the prisoner to be nearer their family and allows participate in rehabilitation programmes specific to their country.

The Facilitated Returns Scheme, launched in October 2006, provides incentives to foreign nationals nationals from outside the European Economic Area to return to their country of origin. Foreign nationals returning voluntarily can receive financial assistance to help their reintegration when returning home.