Yesterday Article 50 was served. The UK is leaving the EU (although of course there are a few who are now arguing the process is reversible).
For the democratic majority it has always been simple. The people voted in a binding democratic referendum to repatriate the powers previously handed over (or gradually but inexorably assumed by the EU as it moves undemocratically from a trading block to a full political federation) in order that once again we become a truly sovereign nation - responsible for our own law, money and borders. It was not primarily an economic decision - it was a decision to be free to shape our own destiny - to stand on our own two feet rather than be burdened by the dead weight of EU bureaucracy, their meddling in our way of life in matters that should not concern them and limiting our ability to engage with the wider world. It was an optimistic decision - a brave decision - a decision that underlined our self belief as a nation and eventually only good will come of it - of that I am certain.
However there are some who can only see this momentous decision in economic terms - and short term economic terms at that. In order to do so they have convinced themselves they can somehow set aside the democratic referendum result - or marginalize it - or skew the message it sent (like leave yes - but the referendum never stated what leave meant - when it was totally clear the public voted to become sovereign again - and not half sovereign.)
So what now?
The UK does not believe the EU project leading towards further political integration is right for us. We want out - we have never been fully in. However that does not mean we wish the EU ill - we just want a different type of future. We want to be good neighbors and co exist together in harmony for the mutual good. We see no reason why we shouldn't be able to trade with each other sensibly and reasonably - trade from which everyone will benefit.
However it is clear the EU is now primarily a political entity - not a trading one. The politics in the EU are in turmoil and there is a great deal of unrest. The EU project has so many problems. Those EU politicians most deeply invested in the EU project are fighting for survival and may well feel a UK doing well outside the EU will undermine future cohesion of the EU project and therefore will do everything they can to undermine the UK. Germany and France have the most to lose of course.
Therefore I expect the news coming out of the EU to appear initially negative towards UK leave - and this will cause political pressures at home and embolden the remoaners. There will be ups and downs not least over the so called divorce settlement. (we are a net contributor of over £10 billion pa. The EU will have to find this money elsewhere unless they can prise it out of us. I have no idea what a fair figure would be regarding ongoing liabilities we have signed up to - I also have no idea of assets we could legitimately claim to offset). This will be very contentious as it is a matter of disputed legal opinion about the obligation for future liability and what it comprises of.) At the end of the day the British electorate will expect the EU to act fairly and reasonably. If there is a sense that the EU wish to punish us out of malice - then the bull dog spirit will be to back our government - accept the pain - and get on with building our future with the rest of the world. (No deal better than a bad deal).
However :
My own view is the problems in the EU are going to increasingly hit the fan - and those problems will underpin (bolster the UK electorate in support of leave) in the UK the good sense of the UK decision and lead the EU to accept cutting off their noses to spite the UK through penal trading terms makes no sense. The EU is going to have massive budgetary issues to deal with so why make it worse? (see below).
The issues that will come to the fore in the EU are :-
For the democratic majority it has always been simple. The people voted in a binding democratic referendum to repatriate the powers previously handed over (or gradually but inexorably assumed by the EU as it moves undemocratically from a trading block to a full political federation) in order that once again we become a truly sovereign nation - responsible for our own law, money and borders. It was not primarily an economic decision - it was a decision to be free to shape our own destiny - to stand on our own two feet rather than be burdened by the dead weight of EU bureaucracy, their meddling in our way of life in matters that should not concern them and limiting our ability to engage with the wider world. It was an optimistic decision - a brave decision - a decision that underlined our self belief as a nation and eventually only good will come of it - of that I am certain.
However there are some who can only see this momentous decision in economic terms - and short term economic terms at that. In order to do so they have convinced themselves they can somehow set aside the democratic referendum result - or marginalize it - or skew the message it sent (like leave yes - but the referendum never stated what leave meant - when it was totally clear the public voted to become sovereign again - and not half sovereign.)
So what now?
The UK does not believe the EU project leading towards further political integration is right for us. We want out - we have never been fully in. However that does not mean we wish the EU ill - we just want a different type of future. We want to be good neighbors and co exist together in harmony for the mutual good. We see no reason why we shouldn't be able to trade with each other sensibly and reasonably - trade from which everyone will benefit.
However it is clear the EU is now primarily a political entity - not a trading one. The politics in the EU are in turmoil and there is a great deal of unrest. The EU project has so many problems. Those EU politicians most deeply invested in the EU project are fighting for survival and may well feel a UK doing well outside the EU will undermine future cohesion of the EU project and therefore will do everything they can to undermine the UK. Germany and France have the most to lose of course.
Therefore I expect the news coming out of the EU to appear initially negative towards UK leave - and this will cause political pressures at home and embolden the remoaners. There will be ups and downs not least over the so called divorce settlement. (we are a net contributor of over £10 billion pa. The EU will have to find this money elsewhere unless they can prise it out of us. I have no idea what a fair figure would be regarding ongoing liabilities we have signed up to - I also have no idea of assets we could legitimately claim to offset). This will be very contentious as it is a matter of disputed legal opinion about the obligation for future liability and what it comprises of.) At the end of the day the British electorate will expect the EU to act fairly and reasonably. If there is a sense that the EU wish to punish us out of malice - then the bull dog spirit will be to back our government - accept the pain - and get on with building our future with the rest of the world. (No deal better than a bad deal).
However :
My own view is the problems in the EU are going to increasingly hit the fan - and those problems will underpin (bolster the UK electorate in support of leave) in the UK the good sense of the UK decision and lead the EU to accept cutting off their noses to spite the UK through penal trading terms makes no sense. The EU is going to have massive budgetary issues to deal with so why make it worse? (see below).
The issues that will come to the fore in the EU are :-
- Elections in France & Germany will weaken the hand of the EU federalists. Consequently there might be more emphasis on the importance of trade rather than a further move to political union and the UK will be offered a decent and sensible trade deal.
- The migrant issue will re-emerge on the borders of the EU as the weather improves. Merkel's policy will further unravel and cause great tensions within EU countries many of whom do not want to accept more migrants. One way or another there will be very significant financial costs to the EU in dealing with this issue which they have contrived to exacerbate.
- The Southern Europe economies continue to struggle or worse - the euro debt crisis has not been dealt but fudged. It will re-emerge and further massive bailouts will be required.
- The American's are contemptuous of the EU's reliance on American money to underpin the defense of Europe and this will have to change at great cost to the EU economies.
- The American's are not well disposed to a trade deal with the EU as a block - they see the EU primarily as a project to serve the best interests of the Germans. This will bring about change.
Sooner or later Theresa May will win a landslide victory in a general election which will place a final seal on the Brexit democratic decision.
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