Wednesday, 11 July 2018

#Brexit my updated view

What a problem Brexit has turned into but somehow I remain optimistic we are staggering to the finish line (because democracy has to prevail in our society).

Why has it been so? Well in my mind it is simple. Enough people have not respected our democracy. Consequently they have chosen to play fast and loose with the decision of the British people.

Brexit was always simple in purpose and meaning - to take back control of our laws, our money, our borders and be able to trade freely with the rest of the world. Whether that is hard or soft Brexit EVERYONE knows that is what the people understood they were voting for. Since then we have had duplicity, weasel words and out right anti democratic behaviour - which is shameful and highly damaging.

So why am I still optimistic ?
  • Article 50 has been triggered. We are leaving the EU in March 2019. That is the law of the land and just about impossible to change.
  • Theresa May (and the majority of Conservatives ) ultimately respects the democratic imperative of the referendum result. It is possible the Conservatives will change their leader but I cannot see them trigger a General Election because of the Corbyn threat.
  • It must be obvious to the EU and to Theresa May that she will not be able to concede much more to the EU than the Chequers Agreement and survive (because it will not meet the Brexit imperative freedoms and be Brexit in name only.)
  • Therefore the prospect of a "no deal" is a real one and that will hurt the EU too - and they want to avoid it. 
  • Consequently The Chequers Agreement becomes definitive and as such I think the majority will concede grudgingly it does meet the definition of Brexit (just).
The resignations of David Davis and Boris Johnson (with the threat of others to come) has been helpful - because it underlines and demonstrates what a tight corner Theresa May is in and how little room for maneuver in negotiation with the EU she has. That will keep her on the Brexit straight and narrow I think and also demonstrate to the EU they cannot push her much further without the real prospect of a no deal.

In the same way I think the decision of ardent Brexiteers like Gove, Leadsom, Fox and Raab to work with the Chequers Agreement squeezes Theresa May from the other side - so the balance is about right.

It has been messy. It has not been so far - what we were hoping for - in as much as the Brexit optimism of a bright outgoing future - standing on our own two feet as a nation - with no excuses - has yet to materialise. But hopefully it will although it will be far from a perfect Brexit.

For what it is worth the way I see it is we will be sufficiently out of the EU not to be dragged down by its inevitable demise. The EU is undemocratic. It is massively corrupt. It is failing. It will fail.

PS a recent interview with the clear thinking Daniel Hannan. http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/5807608914001/?#sp=show-clips

and an article from Daniel Hannan emphasising we must prepare for no deal - and he is right. https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/07/daniel-hannan-my-view-of-mays-new-brexit-plan-its-just-about-better-than-no-deal-but-this-far-and-no-further.html

  

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