Tuesday 7 May 2019

#Brexit after the Local Elections

It is 7th May. Local elections took place last week and the Tory government took a hammering with massive seat losses. Labour faired at least as badly given that they should be in the ascendancy at this stage of the 5 year Parliamentary cycle. The general consensus was this was a bloody nose dished out to the two main parties by the electorate who are frustrated by the mismanagement of the Brexit issue by both parties.

Here are the actual local election results.

Conservative3564-1330
Labour2021-84
Liberal Democrat1351+704
Green265+194
UKIP31-145
Others1178+661


These are my observations :
  • Question - if you believe in a proper Brexit (and it was important to you at a "local election" to signal your pro Brexit view) who could you vote for at the local election. In reality no party properly represented Brexit if you discount the two main parties as treacherous with regard the delivery of the Brexit leave vote.
  • The Liberal Democrats who have a clear commitment to try and stop Brexit claim their relative success indicates a change of heart on Brexit from the electorate. I think this is rubbish. First of all the LD were operating off a tiny base because they were decimated at the last round of local elections. They could only go up. They have a tradition in local government and generally they are viewed as competent at a local level. I don't think support for them was anything much to do about Brexit.
  • UKIP did badly. This says nothing about Brexit as they are now discredited (lurch to the right)as an organisation and did not stand in many seats.
  • However - Others (Independents) did almost as well as the LD's. I understand many of these councillors formerly represented UKIP but resigned under Batten's leadership. They reflect support for Brexit and many have joined the Brexit Party.
These are my thoughts :
  • It will be much different at the Euro Elections (almost certain they will happen now). Nigel Farage's new Brexit Party will be standing. They will be a massive force and the new home of the pro Brexit electorate.
  • The new Change UK party will also be standing. They are the Peoples Vote Party who actually want to stop Brexit. It seems likely they and the Liberal Democrats will nullify each other.
  • The prediction is the Brexit party will have enormous success and under score the extent that that MP's of both Conservative and Labour are out of step with the electorate. The Brexit majority has far from diminished -they still want a full Brexit.
  • The Labour and Conservative parties will be battered in the EU elections because their leaderships and MP's have been duplicitous. 
In summary :

There has been a lot of wishy washy analysis of the rejection of the Tories and Labour at the Local Elections. MP's have vainly said the message they are taking is the electorate just want them to get on with it. Many have also claimed the message is MP's from all parties should work together to form a consensus on Brexit. This is rubbish - MP's are in denial.


What the local election results show and will be rammed home at the EU elections is the majority in the UK still want the Brexit they were promised and voted for. MP's have tried to argue they accept the decision made in the referendum but there are many ways we can leave and deliver on the leave vote. This is a LIE.

Leave means taking back full control of our laws, money and borders and be able to trade freely with the rest of the world on our own terms. That is Brexit. Anything less is not Brexit. This is the Brexit outlined by Theresa May in her Lancaster House speech. Many MP's and pundits are now using the term Brexit extremists to those sticking to the original definition of Brexit. Put another way 17.4 million people wanted an extremist Brexit and all the signs are they still do - perhaps even more so.

My last point. All this talk about compromise and forming a cross party consensus on Brexit is dreadful. This is just political game playing at the expense of the electorate. It is total rubbish. MP's are being duplicitous. Why did we have a referendum - to decide a very basic question - a binary one. In or out! Where can consensus feature? Remain half in and be half out. The worst of all world's. Too many MP's - certainly the leadership of the main parties, (for selfish reasons) have tried  to keep both leave and remain voters onside. That is not leadership in the best interest of the UK. That does not uphold our democratic system. It is self interest and it is not working as they will find when the Brexit Party clears up.

And now my very last point. Theresa May has to go. She is a useless negotiator and turns out - only a nominal supporter of leave. She needs to be replaced by someone who believes in and can articulate the tremendous opportunities the UK is offered by Brexit. Someone like Dominic Raab.

 





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