It is 17th July. In a few days Boris Johnson will be our Prime Minister.
He will have been elected on a simple mantra - we are leaving the EU on 31st October - deal or no deal.
He would prefer a deal - but a deal which is based around the current withdrawal agreement containing the Irish Backstop is unacceptable - it is dead - and if the EU insist it stays - then we leave without a deal.
Can Johnson get a no deal through Parliament? It is another poker hand.
It seems pretty clear Parliament cannot stop a no deal by statutory means - even Grieve has acknowledged so.
Increasingly it appears the only way Tory MP's against a no deal will be able to stop it is to bring down Johnson's government in a vote of no confidence and force a general election.
If the reason they are against leaving without a deal is the predicted damage it will do to the UK economy- the harsh reality they have to confront is what damage would be done to the UK if they open up the possibility of a Corbyn led Labour General Election win? For any Tory that must be a catastrophic prospect - so would they really bring the Government down? A few might. A few might cut off their noses to spite their faces - people like Grieve and Soubry but in the main it is so illogical I think the majority will stack their hand and Johnson will find the support he needs for a no deal.
The EU - and particularly the Irish want to use the argument that removing the back stop threatens peace in Ireland. Johnson just does not buy that. Why? The UK is never going to put up a hard border in Ireland. If the EU are prepared to - be it on their shoulders. The reality is they won't in a no deal scenario - so the risk to peace by physically dividing Ireland is not going to happen with or without a deal.
To round off the logic of this blog and the real prospect of us leaving on 31st October without a deal I have cut and pasted below from an earlier blog I have written. There is a change of mood under Johnson. The chips are down now and the UK is going to play its poker hand because it is no longer afraid of losing. That is my assessment.
It is clear now the Brexit crisis will not be resolved by consensus and technocratic managerial type political thinking. Johnson is in tune with the majority I think. It goes something like this - we want out of the EU - we don't like the way the EU is going - we don't quite know how we are going to pull it off - but we are a great country - somehow we will find a way - and how bad can it be? Lets just get on with it and leave and be damned with the naysayers and pessimists!
Critics say - madness - we must have a detailed plan. Remainers continue to argue the risks of Brexit are too great. Johnson has the ability to transcend that negativity and create optimism and a can do attitude. It is motivating. People are not stupid - they know there will be bumps in the road - they know it will cost the UK but frankly they don't care. They want to be free - they want democracy to be upheld - and they believe Johnson might be the only one that can deliver it. The people also understand that the only way to be respected in negotiations with the EU is to say we are leaving regardless of a deal and mean it. The people understand the basic logic and commonsense of that position and are on Johnson's side and will back him.
He will have been elected on a simple mantra - we are leaving the EU on 31st October - deal or no deal.
He would prefer a deal - but a deal which is based around the current withdrawal agreement containing the Irish Backstop is unacceptable - it is dead - and if the EU insist it stays - then we leave without a deal.
Can Johnson get a no deal through Parliament? It is another poker hand.
It seems pretty clear Parliament cannot stop a no deal by statutory means - even Grieve has acknowledged so.
Increasingly it appears the only way Tory MP's against a no deal will be able to stop it is to bring down Johnson's government in a vote of no confidence and force a general election.
If the reason they are against leaving without a deal is the predicted damage it will do to the UK economy- the harsh reality they have to confront is what damage would be done to the UK if they open up the possibility of a Corbyn led Labour General Election win? For any Tory that must be a catastrophic prospect - so would they really bring the Government down? A few might. A few might cut off their noses to spite their faces - people like Grieve and Soubry but in the main it is so illogical I think the majority will stack their hand and Johnson will find the support he needs for a no deal.
The EU - and particularly the Irish want to use the argument that removing the back stop threatens peace in Ireland. Johnson just does not buy that. Why? The UK is never going to put up a hard border in Ireland. If the EU are prepared to - be it on their shoulders. The reality is they won't in a no deal scenario - so the risk to peace by physically dividing Ireland is not going to happen with or without a deal.
To round off the logic of this blog and the real prospect of us leaving on 31st October without a deal I have cut and pasted below from an earlier blog I have written. There is a change of mood under Johnson. The chips are down now and the UK is going to play its poker hand because it is no longer afraid of losing. That is my assessment.
It is clear now the Brexit crisis will not be resolved by consensus and technocratic managerial type political thinking. Johnson is in tune with the majority I think. It goes something like this - we want out of the EU - we don't like the way the EU is going - we don't quite know how we are going to pull it off - but we are a great country - somehow we will find a way - and how bad can it be? Lets just get on with it and leave and be damned with the naysayers and pessimists!
Critics say - madness - we must have a detailed plan. Remainers continue to argue the risks of Brexit are too great. Johnson has the ability to transcend that negativity and create optimism and a can do attitude. It is motivating. People are not stupid - they know there will be bumps in the road - they know it will cost the UK but frankly they don't care. They want to be free - they want democracy to be upheld - and they believe Johnson might be the only one that can deliver it. The people also understand that the only way to be respected in negotiations with the EU is to say we are leaving regardless of a deal and mean it. The people understand the basic logic and commonsense of that position and are on Johnson's side and will back him.
No comments:
Post a Comment