#Brexit - Johnson's proroguing move explained - Washington Post 28/8/19 Article by Adam Taylor & Jennifer Hassan

I have been writing blogs about the sad Brexit saga starting right back to pre referendum. I am  passionate pro leave. I firmly believe we must leave on 31st October. I am pro No Deal if all we are offered is a bad deal and I am desperately concerned about our democracy.

Parliament delegated a fundamental/binary decision to the people. The people made that decision in a democratic referendum. (17.4 million people voted to leave - a clear majority). Some MP's do not like the decision the people made or choose not to implement it for narrow party political reasons. Boris Johnson is right to do everything he can to uphold the democratic imperative. It is ridiculous to accuse him of a coupe and trying to thwart democracy. It is those MP's that are trying to prevent us leaving who are thwarting democracy.

The article below also explains that prorogation is not some sinister weapon but part of our regular political life - it is an annual event. The only people crying foul are remainers and the irony is that are the duplicitous anti democrats.

I am using this article because it is objective and relatively straightforward.

Washington Post 28/8/19 Article by Adam Taylor & Jennifer Hassan

With just over two months before the deadline to leave the European Union, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has made a dramatic move by asking Queen Elizabeth II to suspend Parliament. The queen has approved his request.

“It is this day ordered by Her Majesty in Council that the Parliament be prorogued on a day no earlier than Monday the 9th day of September and no later than Thursday the 12th day of September 2019 to Monday the 14th day of October 2019,” the announcement supporting Johnson’s request read.

Johnson, who has been Britain’s leader since July, told reporters on Wednesday that his move to close Parliament — known as “proroguing” in formal British political lingo — would allow his government a fresh start to set out its “very exciting agenda.”

But as with much in Britain these days, many believe the real point of the move is simple: Brexit. By suspending Parliament between Sept. 11 and Oct. 14, as Johnson has proposed, politicians would have far less time to try to stop or stall Britain’s likely exit from the E.U. which is expected Oct. 31.

Johnson’s critics believe the prime minister’s push to deliver Brexit at all costs has sparked a constitutional crisis in Britain.

What is proroguing?

Though Johnson’s use of proroguing is unusual, the suspension of Parliament is a regular occurrence in British politics. It is normally done once a year, often between a yearly session in late April or early May. It is different from the dissolution of Parliament, which is done before a general election.

If Parliament is prorogued, members keep their seats and continue to do work in their constituencies, with only their Parliamentary work suspended. The move brings to a close all parliamentary business that is being worked on — such as bills and motions — though some can be carried on to the next session.

There is customarily a suspension of Parliament in Britain for three weeks in September during which time political parties hold conferences. Johnson’s proposal would extend that period to more than one month.

['They’re already calling it a constitutional crisis.' Reporter Adam Taylor on Johnson’s Brexit maneuver that’s dividing British politicians.]

Notably, Johnson’s predecessor Theresa May did not prorogue Parliament in 2018 as she said her government needed more time to work on Brexit laws.

How is the queen involved?

British politicians don’t vote on whether to prorogue Parliament. Instead, the decision is made by the queen. In practice, she makes the decision on the advice of her prime minister — in this case, Johnson.

If Parliament is prorogued, an announcement on behalf of the queen will be read out in both houses of Parliament. When it is reopened, the queen will make a speech that sets out the government’s agenda for the coming session.

The queen has generally remained neutral on political issues, though she has been reported to have made remarks that were interpreted as calling for calm amid the chaos of Brexit.

The British royal is currently on holiday in Scotland at her Balmoral residence but approved Johnson’s request on Wednesday.

Why would Johnson do this?

In his letter announcing he had asked the queen to prorogue Parliament, Johnson noted May’s decision to not close it and said the length of the session had meant “Parliamentary business has been sparse.” Johnson suggested his decision would help set a “new bold and ambitious domestic legislative agenda for the renewal of our country after Brexit.”

However, by suspending Parliament just days after British lawmakers return from their breaks, Johnson has cut down the amount of time they have to try to legislatively block or delay Britain’s exit from the E.U. — leaving just a handful of days in September and late October for a move.

It also means there is less time for Parliament to pass laws designed to soften the economic damage that could be caused by “no-deal” Brexit, which is the default if Britain doesn’t reach a withdrawal agreement with E.U. member states before Oct. 31.

The Institute for Government says that the last time a proroguing was used by a government to get around opposition to government policy was in 1948, when the government of Clement Attlee pushed through a law that curtailed the power of Britain’s House of Lords.

Can his plan be stopped?

Possibly, but it may be difficult. Many British lawmakers, who are on vacation from Parliament, are angered by Johnson’s move.

Members of the British public are also concerned, and many have signed a petition calling for Parliament not to be prorogued or dissolved. By midday in Britain on Wednesday, the petition had generated more than 249,000 signatures.

Parliament considers all petitions that generate more than 100,000 signatures for debate, which means this particular petition will come to the attention of the British government and should generate a response.

While the petition continues to grow, however, it’s unlikely it will stop Johnson’s plan. A past petition entitled “Revoke Article 50 and remain in the E.U.” generated more than 6 million signatures, yet the government was not forced to take any action.

Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the Labour opposition party, called Johnson’s no-deal Brexit plan “reckless” and said that his party will attempt to stop Johnson’s move next week.

If MPs did call for — and win — a vote of no-confidence in Johnson, they could potentially form an alternative government and prime minister. Lawmakers could also head to court for a judicial review in a bid to prevent Johnson from shutting down Parliament.

Some initially hoped early on Wednesday that the queen would refuse Johnson’s recommendation to prorogue Parliament, but such a move would have be a major break with the modern tradition of an apolitical role for the British head of state.

How do you even pronounce proroguing?

Well, it’s the word of the day in Britain along with the terms “prorogue”and “prorogation,” all of which have caused many people to pause as they try to unpack the hot mess that is Brexit.

Our best advice is that it’s pro plus rogue with an “ing” thrown on the end.

“If you support proroguing are you proprorogue?” pondered one BBC journalist on Wednesday.

#Sennen 2019 annual pilgrimage - inc St Buryan & Porthcurno

Just had an especially atmospheric swim off Quay Rocks, Seaview. Early morning - there is a heavy sea mist – visibility maybe only a 100 yards. The tide is up. There is the occasional booming fog horns from the commercial traffic in the shipping lane a couple of miles away. They resonate - vibrate in a brooding melodic way. I can read the tide from the bobbing dinghies on their moorings. The low sun is breaking through onto the dark gentle ripples as I swim into it. The light is fantastic - the sea seems especially salty. The water is so invigorating – not warm like the Med – not cold like the Atlantic – in between.


Another year.  We are just back from our annual family pilgrimage to the depths of deepest Cornwall. I have written blogs about our St Buryan camping holiday which has taken place at this time of year for many years now. We go to the same place and do the same things and we love it.


What do I especially want to say about this year by way of record?


The Roseland Peninsula jutting out into the Atlantic Ocean has a climate officially categorised  as “oceanic”. An oceanic climate is typified by cool winters with warmer summers and precipitation all year round – ha! I have probably quoted the joke before – if you do not like the Cornwall weather – wait 10 minutes.


I drive through the night – towing a trailer – crammed with everything we should need for a week. I arrive at St Buryan early in the morning in heavy rain. Fortunately Phil and Vic and the girls arrived a couple of days before. Their substantial air beam tent is well set and I am amazingly comfortable. Later my brother Mike and his son Jack arrives. We sit in the tent observing the horizontal rain and are pessimistic about getting our tents up. My tent especially is a mammoth task – an ancient  8 berth Cabanon Espace – which amongst other things serves as the village hall. It has a steel frame and a heavy gauge proofed cotton fabric. But typical Cornwall – there is a break in the weather and with a communal effort we are set for the week. In all the assembled family party is 16 and 6 tents and a van! A good turn out campers!


Thereafter we had fine weather – all were beach days – every evening we were outside – despite the occasional night time shower that kept everything fresh. One thing I would recommend for a Cornwall holiday however is good wind breaks and those new beach shelters have proved themselves as useful. James has invested in a good one. He has the smartest house on the block now!


We go to the far end of Cornwall for the waves that come in off the 3000 mile Atlantic fetch. We love bodyboarding. We camp because camping is a change from normal domesticity. We decline electricity and while it is hardly wild camping – and we are hardly travelling light – it is a real change. If I could I might live in a tent – easy to say – but it offers so much. In reality who would choose to live without electricity but for a while at least it ensures a much simpler life. It is great to see my two little granddaughters flourishing in a camping environment. They are not scared of creepy crawlies – ha!


Sennen Cove is our beach of choice and in many ways we were lucky that the tide was out for most of the day. This fully exposes the vast sandy beach which we love. Sennen Beach is pristine - goes through a maelstrom of a wash and rinse in very cold Atlantic water twice a day. The sand at Sennen is different too – the granules are flat – they stick to you in a lovely way. One feature is the Atlantic rollers rip up huge fronds of seaweed – great strips of it and it sometimes gathers in the shallows. My grand daughters loved wading through it  – it is a very unusual experience – Gulliver scale linguine! There was some talk of jelly fish – you do see them in the water - but I assured them they cannot hurt in our waters.


But a downside this year at Sennen was a combination of low tide and sand banks caused a concerning rip tide as the tide turned and for that reason we spent a couple of days on Porthcurno Beach. We had one especially good day for body boarding. The waves were perfect. Regretfully I never learned to surf – but bodyboarding  is exhilarating when you catch a wave right. I catch fewer waves than most in my fam but it fills me with pleasure when I do – fills me with pleasure when I don’t - ha! Fills me with pleasure when I see anyone in the fam riding a wave. They are always so chuffed. A fair ground ride. But you need a wet suit. Unlike the Solent where I swim daily in the summer – the Atlantic rollers are relatively freezing!


Other little pleasures I personally want to record – the petanque championship – setting the world catching record with Ayla (31), James’s beach shelter, a sneaky beer with Vic in the Swordfish Newlyn, Rich no hands on a wave, seeing the kids run from St Buryan to Porthcurno - those hills -The Logan Rock, 16 for dinner at St Buryan, George and Laura’s barbecue putting the 3 Uffculme barbecues to shame for yet another year!, the joy of Snakes and Ladders with the girls, Rob and Kay's big night out (the pub was not serving food!) Phil’s curry, James catching a wave or two, Laura thriving with the camping life, how well Vic and Phil are set up and how they are bringing up the girls, the character that is Jack, Jade the scientist, Kay keeping Rob on his toes, Margaret’s pasties, my morning jogs to the end of Sennen, the nightmare of rock climbing with the girls, Andy and now Pete joining the throng, the camaraderie of doing the dishes, 2003 malt vinegar, Mike and his van and his no nonsense approach, micky taking of my bungalow and getting it up and down, early mornings asking the girls questions - well done Annabelle. And no bloody Brexit – ha!

I cannot express easily what it means to be with my two brothers Rob and Mike and their families. Needless to say it means so much.

One final reflective note on my offspring. The dynamic has gradually changed. They are now fully fledged – experienced, capable, competent grown ups. It is a wonderful to see and feel. And Annabelle and Ayla the darling treasures. I count my good fortune indeed (mega touchwood) xxx

Here are a few photos :-

some of the fam on Sennen

walking to the St Buryan Inn. Stange pose from George

quiz questions in the luxury of my tent!

going for the world catching record

Porthcurno taken by Rich and Andy up near the Minack

Base camp Porthcurno

Annabelle and Ayla xxx

#Brexit negotiating Hammond & Rudd style.

Are you like me and millions of others totally frustrated by the interventions of Philip Hammond and Amber Rudd. They keep saying we should negotiate a deal but take no deal off the table.

Here is a simple analogy (which most people fully understand).

Hammond & Rudd want to buy a house. Which negotiation strategy works?

Their's

On viewing - they say to the vendors - "this is the house for us - we are not leaving under any circumstances until you sell it to us." By the way your price is too high will you reduce it please?

or Boris's

We would like to do a deal on this house but your current price is too steep for us. Can we do a deal - or reluctantly we will have to walk away which will be a shame?

Taking No Deal off the table diminishes our negotiating hand. The May, Hammond Rudd approach has got us nowhere. It has allowed the EU to stitch us up.

Boris Johnson's strategy is a game changer unless the EU believe he cannot deliver No Deal - in which case the EU sits tight.

No deal is better than a bad deal. Buying a house that subsequently bankrupts you because the price is too high is stupidity. The current Withdrawal Agreement places the UK totally over a barrel when it comes to negotiating a future trade agreement. We would be mad - totally naïve to accept it - and we won't.

And to follow the analogy through - there are other houses to buy - we will not be homeless. Granted we will have some more work to do - but it will be worth it in the end. We will have our own castle !

So to Hammond and Rudd how does your carping interventions help? Are you really that stupid you cannot see the damage you are doing? I doubt it. What you are really trying to do is to stop us leaving. Shame on you. Your duplicity is nauseating.

#IrishBackstop what is it and why is it a problem?

It is the 5th August - the height of our summer. I am just back from my early morning bike ride. An artist would only require two colours this morning - black and white to make shades of grey. It is spring tides too - some of the biggest of the year. As a consequence the sea was out of sight with clouds hanging low. It was warm drizzle. Few around - the terrors of getting wet! It was peaceful and quite lovely.

I woke this morning to read the Fastnet race (from Cowes - around the Fastnet Rock off the southern tip of Ireland and back to  Plymouth to finish) - a round trip off 600 miles had, been won (line honours) in a record time 1 day 4 hours 2 mins 26 seconds! Equally remarkable - the second boat home was only 58 seconds behind. Both boats were massive foiling trimarans that can do 15 knots in a puff of wind. Amazing but lacking some sort of sailing purity in my mind - perhaps is has become too technical.

Anyway - the mention of Ireland. Brexit came up over the weekend. It often does because people who do not necessarily find it as intersting as I do ask me what the "latest" is - in the ongoing and painful saga. 

Most people know there is a problem with the Irish backstop - but in reality it is evident many people do not have a clear understanding of the issue. Just in case you are interested - and particularly with my wider international readership in mind - I have decided to quickly summarise the problem in the following blog - ha!

We want Brexit done - it is the democratic imperative - but there is a major sticking point because the negotiated Withdrawal Agreement (which requires Parliamentary ratification) between the EU and the UK contains an "Irish Backstop" provision. The UK Parliament will not ratify it because they do not like it. It begs the question why?

Ok there are separate strands to this issue that come together to make up the problem. To understand the problem you have to understand the separate strands first.

STRAND 1 - IRELAND - a potted recap of its history :

• Ireland in an island located off the west coast of Great Britain.
• For much of its history Ireland was colonised by the British (English).
• The Irish people are mainly Roman Catholic but there also a large number of Protestants located mostly in the north.
• For many years the Catholic Irish fought for Home Rule for Ireland but the Protestants remained loyal to the United Kingdom.
• In 1948 - The Republic of Ireland was created - a separate country and now a member of the EU in its own right. It covers 5/6ths of the island of Ireland.
• However the remaining 6th - designated Northern Ireland (Ulster) - and with a Protestant majority remains part of the United Kingdom.
• There is as a consequence a long and complex land border.
• Many Irish Catholics were not satisfied with this arrangement and "troubles" flourished between the two communities. The IRA waged war on the Protestant Northern Irish and symbols of British rule. This was characterised by bombings, assassinations  and riots and the war was taken to the British mainland. 
• Protestants (UDA) and the British Army fought back
• There were many killings and many deaths - a terrible period.
• The "troubles finally came to an end in 1998 with a negotiated peace settlement commonly known as The Good Friday Agreement. The IRA accepted the status of Northern Ireland could only be changed through the ballot box and a system of government was agreed that respected the status quo but protected the minority Catholic population in N Ireland. Largely the peace has held but it remains fragile.

STRAND 2 - HOW THE UK leaves the EU.

• The UK has been in the EU for over 40 years - part of the single market - with institutions and peoples intertwined - interconnected.
• A process was agreed to allow the UK to Brexit in an orderly fashion which was judged in both the EU's and the UK's best interest.
• The process agreed was in two parts. Part 1 The Withdrawal Agreement ( a binding agreement) covers the terms of the UK leaving - if you like - the divorce and Part 2 The Future Agreement (Political Declaration - only non binding) covers the future - particularly the future trade agreement.
• The idea was once the terms of Withdrawal were agreed the UK would then have a transition period of 2 years to agree a future trade agreement with the EU. In this two year period the UK would follow all the rules of the EU (as if we had not really left) to allow trade to flow freely until it is replaced by the new agreement.

STRAND 3 - THE IRISH BORDER

• As in Strand 1 above - the Irish Border is an International Border between two different countries. It is about 310 miles long and has up to 275 different crossing points - although in reality the whole border is a crossing point. No physical barriers exists along the border and in many practical ways the border is just theoretical.
• Part of the psyche underpinning the peace settlement - The Good Friday Agreement - is Irish people can move freely between Northern Ireland and The Republic of Ireland as if the country was one united Ireland - ie there is no practical indication of a border or restrictions. 

BRINGING THE STRANDS TOGETHER (and where the problem lies).

• Currently the border arrangement in Ireland works because both countries as members of the EU and its single market follow all the same rules and have the same terms of trade. Goods and people can move freely.
• If this changes as it could well do with the UK leaving the EU and its single market, there is the perceived need for some sort of border in Ireland.
• Any physical border - as is normal between two different countries - is seen to create both practical and emotional issues that could be a threat to the peace agreement - see Stand 3 above (and therefore both countries are saying they would never erect a hard border and threaten a peace agreement that was so hard won.)

WHAT IS THE PROPOSED SOLUTION TO THE IRISH BORDER ISSUE FROM THE EU?

• The EU want an "Irish back stop " provision written into the legally binding Withdrawal Agreement. It is a type of insurance policy to protect against the need for a hard border if a suitable trade agreement is not reached (to render a hard border as unnecessary.)
• In effect what the provision says is there will be two years after the Withdrawal Agreement is signed for the EU and the UK to negotiate a trade agreement (to render the need for a hard border in Ireland unnecessary). However if a suitable trade deal is not done N Ireland or the whole of the UK (the EU does not mind which) would  have to in effect stay in the EU - ie follow its rules and laws until such times as the need for a physical border in Ireland is deemed unnecessary. (ie a trade agreement is made). This is being referred to as "the Irish Backstop."

WHY IS THIS UNACCEPTABLE TO THE UK?

• Firstly the DUP party in N Ireland that send MP's to the Westminster Parliament would never allow N Ireland to be treated differently than the rest of the UK because N Ireland is part of the UK This is an over riding principal and non negotiable - an absolute red line. Therefore the whole of the UK would in effect have to stay in the EU if a deal is not done to avoid the necessity for a hard border.
• However the main reason is the insistence by the EU of an Irish backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement in effect places the UK totally over a barrel. Why so? The UK would only be able to leave the EU when a trade deal had been done - ie we could not unilaterally leave as we can now. There are two fears that run from this. 1) Because the EU wants to keep the UK in the EU (as we are a massive net contributor) they have no real motivation to negotiate a speedy deal so we could leave but even worse 2) as the UK could not legally walk away from trade negotiations we would have to take what is offered. The French President has already said - no trade agreement unless French fisherman can continue to fish in British waters - the Spanish prime minister has said no trade agreement unless the status of Gibraltar changes in Spain's favour. To coin a phrase - we would be screwed.

WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN?

• If the EU insists the Irish Backstop provision stays in the Withdrawal Agreement it will not be ratified by the UK Parliament.
• Two possibilities - The UK leaves with NO DEAL ( the most likely outcome ) or less likely somehow Brexit is stopped by the UK Parliament because they do not like the economic risk of No Deal.
• The UK position is the EU will have to relent and take the Irish Backstop out of the Withdrawal Agreement so a deal can be done.

WHAT DO THE UK GOVERNMENT THINK SHOULD HAPPEN?

• The UK Government says the EU position is non sensical because neither the UK Government or The Irish Government will erect a physical barrier under any circumstances including a No Deal. It cannot happen.
• The UK Government are arguing that modern borders do not require physical checks at the border. There are things like trusted trader schemes - paperwork being submitted on line - and random away from border checks that offer a solution. They argue a technological solution renders the Irish back stop need unnecessary because there is no need for a physical border under any circumstances.
• The EU insist the technology to make this work at an acceptable level does not currently exist.

WHAT DO I THINK IS GOING TO HAPPEN?

1. Leaving with NO Deal on 31st October is the most likely outcome. I think it is the democratic imperative and what the people want - a clean break - to get on with it - and hang the consequences (of Project Fear) if we take a hit. We expect to take a hit. It is clearly what the new Johnson led Government want to do if there is no movement from the EU by 31st October.
2. The EU might back down (and a deal is done at the last moment) given they have a lot to lose from No Deal too. This will only happen if the EU believe the Johnson led Government can deliver No Deal (and this is not certain because of parliamentary arithmetic). The EU will have to agree a technological solution can be found. Obviously the EU are very reluctant to concede because as I have explained the current arrangement suits them very well - the UK would be over a barrel. There is also the political issue of a perceived climb down to explain.
3. The UK Parliament stop No Deal or more likely force a General Election.

MY BOOKIES ODDS

Option 1 - 60%

Option 2 - 25%

Option 3 - 15%