#IrishBackstop what is it and why is it a problem?

It is the 5th August - the height of our summer. I am just back from my early morning bike ride. An artist would only require two colours this morning - black and white to make shades of grey. It is spring tides too - some of the biggest of the year. As a consequence the sea was out of sight with clouds hanging low. It was warm drizzle. Few around - the terrors of getting wet! It was peaceful and quite lovely.

I woke this morning to read the Fastnet race (from Cowes - around the Fastnet Rock off the southern tip of Ireland and back to  Plymouth to finish) - a round trip off 600 miles had, been won (line honours) in a record time 1 day 4 hours 2 mins 26 seconds! Equally remarkable - the second boat home was only 58 seconds behind. Both boats were massive foiling trimarans that can do 15 knots in a puff of wind. Amazing but lacking some sort of sailing purity in my mind - perhaps is has become too technical.

Anyway - the mention of Ireland. Brexit came up over the weekend. It often does because people who do not necessarily find it as intersting as I do ask me what the "latest" is - in the ongoing and painful saga. 

Most people know there is a problem with the Irish backstop - but in reality it is evident many people do not have a clear understanding of the issue. Just in case you are interested - and particularly with my wider international readership in mind - I have decided to quickly summarise the problem in the following blog - ha!

We want Brexit done - it is the democratic imperative - but there is a major sticking point because the negotiated Withdrawal Agreement (which requires Parliamentary ratification) between the EU and the UK contains an "Irish Backstop" provision. The UK Parliament will not ratify it because they do not like it. It begs the question why?

Ok there are separate strands to this issue that come together to make up the problem. To understand the problem you have to understand the separate strands first.

STRAND 1 - IRELAND - a potted recap of its history :

• Ireland in an island located off the west coast of Great Britain.
• For much of its history Ireland was colonised by the British (English).
• The Irish people are mainly Roman Catholic but there also a large number of Protestants located mostly in the north.
• For many years the Catholic Irish fought for Home Rule for Ireland but the Protestants remained loyal to the United Kingdom.
• In 1948 - The Republic of Ireland was created - a separate country and now a member of the EU in its own right. It covers 5/6ths of the island of Ireland.
• However the remaining 6th - designated Northern Ireland (Ulster) - and with a Protestant majority remains part of the United Kingdom.
• There is as a consequence a long and complex land border.
• Many Irish Catholics were not satisfied with this arrangement and "troubles" flourished between the two communities. The IRA waged war on the Protestant Northern Irish and symbols of British rule. This was characterised by bombings, assassinations  and riots and the war was taken to the British mainland. 
• Protestants (UDA) and the British Army fought back
• There were many killings and many deaths - a terrible period.
• The "troubles finally came to an end in 1998 with a negotiated peace settlement commonly known as The Good Friday Agreement. The IRA accepted the status of Northern Ireland could only be changed through the ballot box and a system of government was agreed that respected the status quo but protected the minority Catholic population in N Ireland. Largely the peace has held but it remains fragile.

STRAND 2 - HOW THE UK leaves the EU.

• The UK has been in the EU for over 40 years - part of the single market - with institutions and peoples intertwined - interconnected.
• A process was agreed to allow the UK to Brexit in an orderly fashion which was judged in both the EU's and the UK's best interest.
• The process agreed was in two parts. Part 1 The Withdrawal Agreement ( a binding agreement) covers the terms of the UK leaving - if you like - the divorce and Part 2 The Future Agreement (Political Declaration - only non binding) covers the future - particularly the future trade agreement.
• The idea was once the terms of Withdrawal were agreed the UK would then have a transition period of 2 years to agree a future trade agreement with the EU. In this two year period the UK would follow all the rules of the EU (as if we had not really left) to allow trade to flow freely until it is replaced by the new agreement.

STRAND 3 - THE IRISH BORDER

• As in Strand 1 above - the Irish Border is an International Border between two different countries. It is about 310 miles long and has up to 275 different crossing points - although in reality the whole border is a crossing point. No physical barriers exists along the border and in many practical ways the border is just theoretical.
• Part of the psyche underpinning the peace settlement - The Good Friday Agreement - is Irish people can move freely between Northern Ireland and The Republic of Ireland as if the country was one united Ireland - ie there is no practical indication of a border or restrictions. 

BRINGING THE STRANDS TOGETHER (and where the problem lies).

• Currently the border arrangement in Ireland works because both countries as members of the EU and its single market follow all the same rules and have the same terms of trade. Goods and people can move freely.
• If this changes as it could well do with the UK leaving the EU and its single market, there is the perceived need for some sort of border in Ireland.
• Any physical border - as is normal between two different countries - is seen to create both practical and emotional issues that could be a threat to the peace agreement - see Stand 3 above (and therefore both countries are saying they would never erect a hard border and threaten a peace agreement that was so hard won.)

WHAT IS THE PROPOSED SOLUTION TO THE IRISH BORDER ISSUE FROM THE EU?

• The EU want an "Irish back stop " provision written into the legally binding Withdrawal Agreement. It is a type of insurance policy to protect against the need for a hard border if a suitable trade agreement is not reached (to render a hard border as unnecessary.)
• In effect what the provision says is there will be two years after the Withdrawal Agreement is signed for the EU and the UK to negotiate a trade agreement (to render the need for a hard border in Ireland unnecessary). However if a suitable trade deal is not done N Ireland or the whole of the UK (the EU does not mind which) would  have to in effect stay in the EU - ie follow its rules and laws until such times as the need for a physical border in Ireland is deemed unnecessary. (ie a trade agreement is made). This is being referred to as "the Irish Backstop."

WHY IS THIS UNACCEPTABLE TO THE UK?

• Firstly the DUP party in N Ireland that send MP's to the Westminster Parliament would never allow N Ireland to be treated differently than the rest of the UK because N Ireland is part of the UK This is an over riding principal and non negotiable - an absolute red line. Therefore the whole of the UK would in effect have to stay in the EU if a deal is not done to avoid the necessity for a hard border.
• However the main reason is the insistence by the EU of an Irish backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement in effect places the UK totally over a barrel. Why so? The UK would only be able to leave the EU when a trade deal had been done - ie we could not unilaterally leave as we can now. There are two fears that run from this. 1) Because the EU wants to keep the UK in the EU (as we are a massive net contributor) they have no real motivation to negotiate a speedy deal so we could leave but even worse 2) as the UK could not legally walk away from trade negotiations we would have to take what is offered. The French President has already said - no trade agreement unless French fisherman can continue to fish in British waters - the Spanish prime minister has said no trade agreement unless the status of Gibraltar changes in Spain's favour. To coin a phrase - we would be screwed.

WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN?

• If the EU insists the Irish Backstop provision stays in the Withdrawal Agreement it will not be ratified by the UK Parliament.
• Two possibilities - The UK leaves with NO DEAL ( the most likely outcome ) or less likely somehow Brexit is stopped by the UK Parliament because they do not like the economic risk of No Deal.
• The UK position is the EU will have to relent and take the Irish Backstop out of the Withdrawal Agreement so a deal can be done.

WHAT DO THE UK GOVERNMENT THINK SHOULD HAPPEN?

• The UK Government says the EU position is non sensical because neither the UK Government or The Irish Government will erect a physical barrier under any circumstances including a No Deal. It cannot happen.
• The UK Government are arguing that modern borders do not require physical checks at the border. There are things like trusted trader schemes - paperwork being submitted on line - and random away from border checks that offer a solution. They argue a technological solution renders the Irish back stop need unnecessary because there is no need for a physical border under any circumstances.
• The EU insist the technology to make this work at an acceptable level does not currently exist.

WHAT DO I THINK IS GOING TO HAPPEN?

1. Leaving with NO Deal on 31st October is the most likely outcome. I think it is the democratic imperative and what the people want - a clean break - to get on with it - and hang the consequences (of Project Fear) if we take a hit. We expect to take a hit. It is clearly what the new Johnson led Government want to do if there is no movement from the EU by 31st October.
2. The EU might back down (and a deal is done at the last moment) given they have a lot to lose from No Deal too. This will only happen if the EU believe the Johnson led Government can deliver No Deal (and this is not certain because of parliamentary arithmetic). The EU will have to agree a technological solution can be found. Obviously the EU are very reluctant to concede because as I have explained the current arrangement suits them very well - the UK would be over a barrel. There is also the political issue of a perceived climb down to explain.
3. The UK Parliament stop No Deal or more likely force a General Election.

MY BOOKIES ODDS

Option 1 - 60%

Option 2 - 25%

Option 3 - 15%