Monday, 30 December 2019

#LabourPartyLeadership but will there be a party to lead?

As a vehement anti socialist I am smiling as I write this blog. I have no interest in being constructive - I am just going to make these objective observations :-
  • The Labour Party in the Corbyn era has become a much more democratic party. This is admirable. The paid up members have the power to choose the new leader and ultimately party policy.
  • However the Labour Party's problem is the dominant membership are old school doctrinaire, aggressive, intolerant left wingers - represented by John Lansman's Momentum.
  • Historically moderate parties have only ever been elected with their roots firmly grounded in the mainstream.
  • Corbynistas are not mainstream particularly as the baby boomer generation fully understand socialism does not work - as they have lived through the disaster it was - when nothing worked - the economy was a disaster - confidence drained - interest rates soared  and the country teetered on bankruptcy - so cap in hand to the IMF for rescue funds to bail us out.
  • Many of the Corbynistas are young - they have not learned from our history - they apparently have not looked out into the world objectively and seen the obvious. Socialism has never worked anywhere properly. It has always ended in disaster.
  • However Momentum has a grip of the Labour Leadership and this appears to be their analysis of Labours election catastrophe : 
1) They lost because of their Brexit Policy.
2) The rest of their policies were well received and popular.
3) Corbyn was a negative factor but that was mainly the fault of a character assassination by the right wing press.

Is this analysis objective?  Many potential Labour voters disagree. They believe Labour policies were unattractive  - that the old public ownership policies have limited appeal.
  • Many moderate Labour supporters want to get back to something more akin to Blair's New Labour because after all he won 3 general elections. They want to fight for the centre ground - social welfare without public ownership.
  • However this would happen over the dead body of the dominant Momentum faction who believe their policies are correct and if anything they have to be more radical left.
  • These 2 groups seem to me to be unreconcilable. The Labour Party broad church is likely to be no more.
The other problem the Labour Party have as I see it is their leadership candidates are evidently lacking. Here is my assessment :
  • Long-Bailey - attractive back story maybe - but no charisma and not of sufficient calibre.
  • Rayner - attractive back story maybe - not bright enough. Not experienced.
  • Lewis - a nasty left winger. Immature.
  • Starmer - London centric - metropolitan elitist. Tainted by his anti Brexit role. Dull.
  • Thornberry - champagne socialist. Bullying. Arrogant. Metropolitan. 
  • Cooper - credible in some ways but whimpering, negative and duplicitous. A career politician. Unelectable.
  • Lammy - a racist.
  • Lisa Nandy - relatively strong and thoughtful. I doubt she could work effectively with the Corbynistas. The best of a bad bunch.
  • Jess Philips - she can make a splash but will quickly wear thin. The opposite to Nandy. Too emotional. Not credible prime ministerial material.
So my conclusion.

I cannot see the Labour Party being able to reinvent itself as a credible opposition leave alone a credible government. They will try. Eventually the pay masters - the unions will pull the plug and some sort of attempt of a breakaway party will emerge to fail as Boris and the Conservative Party will be firmly camped on the middle ground! Not a bad way to start the next decade if you are a one nation Tory!

No comments:

Post a Comment