#ConspiracyTheorists typical characteristics and CT guide

I came across this by someone called Donna Ferentes and copy and pasted. Obviously they are generalisations and may or may not be correct.

10 characteristics of conspiracy theorists
A useful guide by Donna Ferentes

1. Arrogance. They are always fact-seekers, questioners, people who are trying to discover the truth: sceptics are always "sheep", patsies for Messrs Bush and Blair etc.

2. Relentlessness. They will always go on and on about a conspiracy no matter how little evidence they have to go on or how much of what they have is simply discredited. (Moreover, as per 1. above, even if you listen to them ninety-eight times, the ninety-ninth time, when you say "no thanks", you'll be called a "sheep" again.) Additionally, they have no capacity for precis whatsoever. They go on and on at enormous length.

3. Inability to answer questions. For people who loudly advertise their determination to the principle of questioning everything, they're pretty poor at answering direct questions from sceptics about the claims that they make.

4. Fondness for certain stock phrases. These include Cicero's "cui bono?" (of which it can be said that Cicero understood the importance of having evidence to back it up) and Conan Doyle's "once we have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however unlikely, must be the truth". What these phrases have in common is that they are attempts to absolve themselves from any responsibility to produce positive, hard evidence themselves: you simply "eliminate the impossible" (i.e. say the official account can't stand scrutiny) which means that the wild allegation of your choice, based on "cui bono?" (which is always the government) is therefore the truth.

5. Inability to employ or understand Occam's Razor. Aided by the principle in 4. above, conspiracy theorists never notice that the small inconsistencies in the accounts which they reject are dwarfed by the enormous, gaping holes in logic, likelihood and evidence in any alternative account.

6. Inability to tell good evidence from bad. Conspiracy theorists have no place for peer-review, for scientific knowledge, for the respectability of sources. The fact that a claim has been made by anybody, anywhere, is enough for them to reproduce it and demand that the questions it raises be answered, as if intellectual enquiry were a matter of responding to every rumour. While they do this, of course, they will claim to have "open minds" and abuse the sceptics for apparently lacking same.

7. Inability to withdraw. It's a rare day indeed when a conspiracy theorist admits that a claim they have made has turned out to be without foundation, whether it be the overall claim itself or any of the evidence produced to support it. Moreover they have a liking (see 3. above) for the technique of avoiding discussion of their claims by "swamping" - piling on a whole lot more material rather than respond to the objections sceptics make to the previous lot.

8. Leaping to conclusions. Conspiracy theorists are very keen indeed to declare the "official" account totally discredited without having remotely enough cause so to do. Of course this enables them to wheel on the Conan Doyle quote as in 4. above. Small inconsistencies in the account of an event, small unanswered questions, small problems in timing of differences in procedure from previous events of the same kind are all more than adequate to declare the "official" account clearly and definitively discredited. It goes without saying that it is not necessary to prove that these inconsistencies are either relevant, or that they even definitely exist.

9. Using previous conspiracies as evidence to support their claims. This argument invokes scandals like the Birmingham Six, the Bologna station bombings, the Zinoviev letter and so on in order to try and demonstrate that their conspiracy theory should be accorded some weight (because it's “happened before”.) They do not pause to reflect that the conspiracies they are touting are almost always far more unlikely and complicated than the real-life conspiracies with which they make comparison, or that the fact that something might potentially happen does not, in and of itself, make it anything other than extremely unlikely.

10. It's always a conspiracy. And it is, isn't it? No sooner has the body been discovered, the bomb gone off, than the same people are producing the same old stuff, demanding that there are questions which need to be answered, at the same unbearable length. Because the most important thing about these people is that they are people entirely lacking in discrimination. They cannot tell a good theory from a bad one, they cannot tell good evidence from bad evidence and they cannot tell a good source from a bad one. And for that reason, they always come up with the same answer when they ask the same question.

A person who always says the same thing, and says it over and over again is, of course, commonly considered to be, if not a monomaniac, then at very least, a bore.

And this from Wikipedia

Wikipedia: conspiracy theory guide


1. Initiated on the basis of limited, partial or circumstantial evidence;
Conceived in reaction to media reports and images, as opposed to, for example, thorough knowledge of the relevant forensic evidence.

2. Addresses an event or process that has broad historical or emotional impact;
Seeks to interpret a phenomenon which has near-universal interest and emotional significance, a story that may thus be of some compelling interest to a wide audience.

3. Reduces morally complex social phenomena to simple, immoral actions;
Impersonal, institutional processes, especially errors and oversights, interpreted as malign, consciously intended and designed by immoral individuals.

4. Personifies complex social phenomena as powerful individual conspirators;
Related to (3) but distinct from it, deduces the existence of powerful individual conspirators from the 'impossibility' that a chain of events lacked direction by a person.

5. Allots superhuman talents or resources to conspirators;
May require conspirators to possess unique discipline, unrepentant resolve, advanced or unknown technology, uncommon psychological insight, historical foresight, unlimited resources, etc.

6. Key steps in argument rely on inductive, not deductive reasoning;
Inductive steps are mistaken to bear as much confidence as deductive ones.

Appeals to 'common sense';
Common sense steps substitute for the more robust, academically respectable methodologies available for investigating sociological and scientific phenomena.

7. Exhibits well-established logical and methodological fallacies;
Formal and informal logical fallacies are readily identifiable among the key steps of the argument.

8. Is produced and circulated by 'outsiders', often anonymous, and generally lacking peer review;
Story originates with a person who lacks any insider contact or knowledge, and enjoys popularity among persons who lack critical (especially technical) knowledge.

9. Is upheld by persons with demonstrably false conceptions of relevant science;
At least some of the story's believers believe it on the basis of a mistaken grasp of elementary scientific facts.

10. Enjoys zero credibility in expert communities;
Academics and professionals tend to ignore the story, treating it as too frivolous to invest their time and risk their personal authority in disproving.

11. Rebuttals provided by experts are ignored or accommodated through elaborate new twists in the narrative;
When experts do respond to the story with critical new evidence, the conspiracy is elaborated (sometimes to a spectacular degree) to discount the new evidence, often incorporating the rebuttal as a part of the conspiracy.'

» Wikipedia

#Conspiracytheorists COVID etc

I have written before about the good sense and social responsibility of having the covid vaccine. (PS 26/04/21 - for all those that do not believe the reality of covid look at what is happening in India right now - and still justify your assertions).

But there are conspiracy theorists pedalling the sort of stuff below. What I find amazing is these people latch on some marginal character and take their word as the most authoritative voice on a subject and run with it as unchallengeable proof. They are continually seeking to join dots regardless of the stretch or with any semblance of objectivity. It is incredible anyone would believe it but this is what some peoples lives amount to. What a waste of time and effort.

Professor Charles Morgan gives a lecture at West Point to US soldiers in the Visual Information Division on the latest technology in the field of Bio-Warfare, DNA reprogramming and human cell exploitation.. I have been saying in previous videos that the Corona-con JABS will have the capability to not only change human DNA, but can also enable a persons thoughts and actions to be influenced by remote control.. I can understand if some people thought that I was losing the plot, but I can assure the doubters that this technology absolutely exists and is going to used en-mass through the implementation of the CV19 JABS.. If you watch this video you will see the professor confirm what I have been saying in my videos for many months, in that it is now possible to control the mind of another person by remote control and to also take control over their physical body movements, thoughts and functions.. This is NO conspiracy theory, this is an absolute FACT!! I also wanna say that even this technology is still far behind the latest advancements which are kept from the public domain and are often used against the general public. I remember watching a documentary online many years ago in which a whistle blower stated that the current technology that we see being brought into the public domain is already over 25 years old, that has continued to make me aware that the so called latest advancements are in essence old technology.. The professor reveals that they can now store & conceal images and movies in DNA and bacteria, he also says that just 1 gram of human DNA can store the equivalent of 7 BILLION iPADS, think about that, just 1 gram, that is absolutely astonishing!!! He says that information and images can also be stored in bacteria on the human body which can then be placed in a dish and the information removed and also that when those same bacteria reproduce that it's offspring's will also be encoded with that same information. He also says that it is possible to programme a cell and direct it to target ANY part of the body, including the brain which can then also be reprogrammed and controlled from an outside force. This means that the CV19 JABS can contain all the technology that you will hear in this video and it is CHILLING what that same technology can do when they are primed to target and attack!!! Such is the level of accuracy of this technology that miniature nanobots about the size of dust particles can be programmed to attack any portion of the body to deliver a payload or virus directly into the bloodstream, organs, brain, eyes etc. The reprogrammed DNA cells can also lie dormant in whichever portion of the body it has been directed to and can remain there undetected until the appropriate electronic signal is delivered to re-activate it. He also says that they can manage and change peoples memories and perception and that they don't even need to persuade them, all that is needed is to change their memory through audio and visual images, in other words TV, which is exactly how the the general public have been lured into believing in the great Corona-con.. If you're a Christian you need to know that these JABS will enable the Luciferians to change your DNA and alter your perception of God, in fact, you will be programmed to detest him!!! The bible forewarns that the nations and people of the earth will hate biblical Christianity and will persecute bible believing Christians and this is how that is going to happen, they will alter the perception of every person who takes those demonic DNA changing vaccines.. This is a spiritual war, it has been foretold in the bible almost 3000 years ago and is now taking place before our very eyes!!! It is also worth mentioning that they can ERASE memories and install FALSE ones, just imagine if this is used to deceive the inhabitants of the earth into worshipping the beast, and off course IT WILL, because that's exactly what it was created to do https://www.bitchute.com/video/6BN7ostWeWzq/

#CulverDown

If you live on the Isle of Wight you have walked on Culver Down and almost certainly sat around Culver monument and been stunned by the view. If you are a regular Solent / Channel sailor - the chalk headland or promontory that is Culver and the unmistakeable Yarborough Monument that sits on top - forms a reassuring sight (you have found the Isle of Wight - lol !)

Culver Down is a chalk down - that forms the eastern tip of the Isle of Wight - the chalk spine that runs through the length of the Island to the western tip where it is known as Tennyson Down and of course The Needles. (Downland, chalkland, chalk downs or just downs are areas of open chalk hills, such as the North Downs. This term is used to describe the characteristic landscape in southern England where chalk is exposed at the surface. The name "downs" is derived from the Old English word dun, meaning "hill")

Why am I bothering to write a blog about Culver Down - somewhere anyone who knows the Island will already know?

Well I have been up on Culver a million times - well an exaggeration - but a lot! Familiarity breeds contempt they say. Well it is not contempt - I love being up on Culver - it is perhaps more we take it for granted - it always delivers and it is not hard to get to.

Why is Culver so special? I am sat here at my table and am going to think of a few reasons!

• well - it is chalk down land and hard to beat for walking. Open - (invariably treeless) - a soft cushion of grass - by definition high - invariably agricultural (grazing) and unspoilt - as much of our down land is protected - SSSI designated.
• Culver Down sticks out into the sea with the end facing east. Culver is a headland with Whitecliff Bay to the north and Sandown Bay to the south and far below. As such with its white chalk cliffs (as Dover) it is an extremely prominent landmark. There is a mass expanse of water to see and the seascape is invariably dotted with boats and ships and of course huge skies. The mainland is in view and it feels special to look down on it for some reason.
• It always makes me smile to walk on chalk downs. It just seems staggering it was part of the seabed. (pushed up as a ripple effect of the clash between the Eurasian and African tectonic plates which created the Alps - see my geology of the IOW blog). Chalk is a soft, white, porous, sedimentary carbonate rock, a form of limestone composed of the mineral calcite and originally formed deep under the sea by the compression of sub-microscopic plankton which had fallen to the sea floor. 
• Culver is quiet because there is only one narrow road in. There is little or no noise pollution. You can hear the birds unless it is windy - which it often is of course.
• There are so many different footpaths to ascend and descend Culver. It can be a strenuous walk (not that strenuous or long really) which makes the view from the top something of a reward. Culver is a popular target for runners and joggers too. 
• Have you noticed when you are up high looking down time seems to standstill. Everything in view is either stationary or moving very slowly. It is tranquil. 
• The view from Culver is 360 degrees. You can see for miles and miles including much of the Isle of Wight.
• Culver is a great place for a picnic - to lay in the sun because you can always find somewhere in the lee - to sit and contemplate - for a romantic tryst lol. The plinth around the Yarborough monument is a lovely place to sit and popular with the walkers. If you are very lucky you can find both the lee and the sun!
• Sadly Culver has also been a place for suicide - a car over the cliff. (Apparently preventative measures have now been made.)
• It is hard to get to the top of Culver and not think of the Walk the Wight because it is effectively the start of the great walk - 26 miles. We have a love hate relationship with WTW!
• Culver is a great place to watch the spectacle of the Round the Island race if you get the timing right. Spinnakers flying as the boats come up the back of the Wight and then to turn into the eastern Solent to slog it out up to the Cowes finish (very occasionally it is the other way around and spinnakers to the finish
• And last but not least the Yarborough Monument. It can be seen for miles as I have referred. I have  downloaded some detail : The monument is a memorial to Charles Anderson-Pelham, the 2nd Baron Yarborough (later first Earl of Yarborough and also Baron Worsley), founder of the Royal Yacht Squadron at Cowes. It was originally erected in 1849 on the highest point of Bembridge Down, 3/4 mile to the west, and was moved to its present position in the 1860s when its former site was used for the construction of one of the Palmerston forts.
• To round off - a summary from Wikipedia. : 

Culver Down is a chalk down to the north of Sandown, Isle of Wight. It is believed that its name derives from "Culfre", which is Old English for dove.

The down has a typical chalk downland wildlife on the uncultivated areas (generally the southern and eastern slopes). This includes plants such as Small Scabious, Harebell, Cowslip and Lady's Bedstraw. The chalk cliffs to the north and east are important nesting places for seabirds. Historically, Culver has been the source of commercial bird's egg collecting from ropes over the cliff. It was also known for breeding peregrine falcons, as well as breeding Common Woodpigeons (Culvers), the source of the cliff's name.

The northern side is intensively grazed by cattle, so fertilization and poaching of the soil, not to mention a spell as an artillery training ground, have all but eliminated the natural chalk ecosystem.

On Culver Down a number of unusual ant species live, including the semi-myrmecophilous Solenopsis fugax (Latr.), a thief ant which was recorded there several times by Horace Donisthorpe. The ant Ponera coarctata has also been taken from this location.

The public parts of this prominent headland are owned and managed by the National Trust, and afford views of the English Channel.

For many years the whole site was a military zone and not open to the public. There are several historic military features on the down, a number of private dwellings, the Culver Haven pub, and the very visible Monument. The military barracks which once adjoined the monument has been almost completely erased, but there is a substantial fort, now under the ownership of the National Trust and occasionally opened to the public. Part of the fort is leased to Micronair, manufacturing crop-spraying and military equipment. It is a Palmerston Fort, constructed in the 1860s. At the end of the cliff is a coastal and anti-aircraft battery from the Second World War.

In 1545 a French force was intercepted crossing from its beachhead at Whitecliff Bay to attack Sandown by local levies under Sir John Oglander and a skirmish fought on the Down. The French were finally repulsed at Sandown.

The poet Algernon Charles Swinburne said in a letter that he had climbed the cliffs at 17, in order to prove his manhood to his family after they refused to let him join the army.

There is a legend that a 14th-century hermit lived at the end of the cliffs in a cave, in a structure then known as Culver Ness. He is said to have predicted that the well at Wolverton would be poisoned. When a pilgrim from Jerusalem came to bless the well, the vigilant and pious villagers are said to have murdered him. Shortly after, the French sacked the village and since then it has been lost beneath the trees of Centurion's Copse. They were repulsed from further mischief by Sir Theobald Russell. There was subsequently a great storm which destroyed the Ness and drowned the hermit. This was held to be divine retribution.

Here are a few photos :

Yarborough Monument - can be seen from miles away.

Sandown Bay

aerial view - Bembridge and the Solent beyond

from Yaverland beach Sandown Bay

Round the Island race

#Navigation a daft mistake & conspiracy theorists

Have you ever done this?

Many people make this mistake.

You are navigating - map reading - or chart reading. Using a GPS perhaps.

You are on a committed course.

You check your position.

You check the map - what you should see - you look up - with what you are actually seeing.

It doesn't quite fit. It isn't quite right.

This is where it can all go wrong.

This is where you can make a big mistake.

You convince yourself what you are actually seeing does somehow fit the map.

What is your motivation?

Maybe it is because you are an optimist - it will somehow come right. (that's me - lol)

Maybe because you do not want to face up to wasted effort and have to back track or make major adjustment.

Maybe it is hubris. Maybe you cannot admit to yourself  or your crew - your friends - your family - you have made a mistake.

Whatever the reason ploughing on regardless is rarely the right answer. The sensible thing to do is recalibrate and get back on the right track.

If you don't you will seriously end up in the wrong place. (the snooker ball a half inch out at cuing is 6 inches out by the time it gets to the other end of the table!) You may end up a blind alley or in a deep hole so to speak. Turning back will become harder and harder the more doggedly you follow the wrong course.

This I think can be a lesson in life.

People get on the wrong path - lets say conspiracy theorists or deniers as an ideal example. A new reality does not fit their narrative - but they make it fit. They choose to see or hear the bits that fit but blindly choose to ignore the decisive bits that don't. They are on the wrong course but they are committed to it in some daft way.

What can happen? Their world gets smaller and smaller. They are lost. They are going nowhere. They are up a blind alley. The saddest thing is it often leads to alienation - isolation - and personal destruction and unhappiness because their views become less and less sustainable under objective rational scrutiny and they annoy people. This is the lot of the conspiracy theorist. Their world becomes a downward spiral. Almost always they have made a fundamental navigation error some way back and have failed to deal with it. Is it too late to turn back and get on the right road? The navigators dilemma! In the end you have no choice. Stop digging the hole. Give yourself a break. But it can be a long hard journey - even just to get back to the start again in order to find the right path. A sailing analogy - you might have to beat into the wind - alas - but if it is the only way to get there that is what you have to do. xxx

#CovidRoadMapEngland leave it alone please

On the 22nd February 2021 the Johnson led government published a "road map" with target dates to move from lockdown to the end of covid restrictions.

As ever with covid the MSM, politicians and social media were quick to give opinion. Much was supportive - but many argued it was too slow and some it might be too fast.

The too slow lobby argue it is unnecessarily damaging to business and livelihoods - and also affecting peoples well being more widely. Some used words like using draconian powers.

The too fast group - talk about further wave and potential lockdown later in the year.

The governments position, which they state is science based (undoubtedly it is), provides for a 3 week assessment period following each incremental lock down easing measure. They argue this gives time to measure the impact of each change in order to ensure we identify a further spike in cases should it happen. For instance schools reopened on March 8th. What has been the covid impact (effect on the R number) of that? That is currently being measured. The next easing is scheduled on 29th March providing the school returns have not meant covid infection rates have shot up.

I think for the vast majority of the general public this all makes sense and they have bought into the road map plan without much complaint. The road map dates are known and understood and people are now planning around them. There is a strong sense we know where we are going.

However some are still lobbying for a road map change. They want it to be sped up in the light of positive covid news. Much of the thrust is coming from Tory backbenchers such as Steve Baker.

My message to the likes of Steve Baker is as follows :

• you might be right. We might be able to getaway with unlocking faster.
• you are right that the covid lockdown is widely damaging - of course.
• however you might be wrong and for the sake of a few weeks the public are not in the main on your side.
• the public as I have said have bought into the road map and the key dates and the reasons for them.
• changing it now will bring unnecessary confusion.
• please back off - leave it where it is and stop causing division.

Here is the Governments published road map out of lockdown :

Roadmap out of lockdown

From 8 March, people in England will see restrictions start to lift and the government’s four-step roadmap offer a route back to a more normal life.

The success of the vaccination programme is one factor - so far over 17 million people have had their jabs - but by no means the whole story. The public have also risen to the challenge of suppressing COVID-19: by obeying the law; staying at home; getting tested when needed; isolating when required, and following the ‘hands, face, space’ and ‘letting fresh air in’ guidance.

Taken together, this means that even though absolute case numbers remain relatively high, we will be able to begin relaxing the current strict lockdown. While we must all remain vigilant - in particular against the threat from new COVID-19 variants - and continue to protect the NHS, a safe exit from lockdown can begin. It will take place in four steps; and at each step, we plan to lift restrictions across the whole of England at the same time.

In implementing this plan we will be guided by data, not dates, so that we do not risk a surge in infections that would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS. For that reason, all the dates in the roadmap are indicative and subject to change. There will be a minimum of five weeks between each step: four weeks for the scientific data to reflect the changes in restrictions and to be analysed; followed by one week’s advance notice of the restrictions that will be eased.

Only when the government is sure that it is safe to move from one step to the next will the final decision be made. The decision will be based on four tests:

• the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
• evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
• infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
• our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern

The government will continue to protect the public by ensuring local outbreaks are managed quickly and effectively and that we combat new dangerous variants, both within the UK and at the border. The government will also continue to support families and businesses throughout the steps set out in the roadmap - details of which will be set out by the Chancellor in the Budget on 3 March.

Step 1 - 8 and 29 March

Changes on 8 March

Education

In Step 1, our priority is to ensure that all children and students return safely to face-to-face education in schools and colleges from 8 March. Childcare and children’s supervised activities can also resume where necessary to enable parents to work or engage in similar activities. We are introducing twice-weekly rapid testing for secondary and college pupils - in addition to regular testing for all teachers - to reduce the chance of the virus spreading in schools.

Higher Education students at English universities on practical courses can also return from 8 March.

Social contact

People will be allowed to leave home for recreation and exercise outdoors with their household or support bubble, if they are eligible for one, or with one person from outside their household. Care home residents will also be allowed one regular visitor.

Changes on 29 March

Social contact

The evidence shows that it is safer for people to meet outdoors rather than indoors. And this is why from 29 March, when most schools start to break up for the Easter holidays, outdoor gatherings (including in private gardens) of either 6 people (the Rule of 6) or 2 households will also be allowed, making it easier for friends and families to meet outside.

Business and activities

Outdoor sports facilities such as tennis and basketball courts, and open-air swimming pools, will also be allowed to reopen, and people will be able to take part in formally organised outdoor sports.

Travel

The ‘stay at home’ rule will end on 29 March but many restrictions will remain in place. People should continue to work from home where they can and minimise the number of journeys they make where possible, avoiding travel at the busiest times and routes. Travel abroad will continue to be prohibited, other than for a small number of permitted reasons. Holidays abroad will not be allowed, given it will remain important to manage the risk of imported variants and protect the vaccination programme. The government has launched a new taskforce to review global travel which will report on 12 April.

Step 2 - not before 12 April

Business and activities

Step 2, which will be no earlier than 12 April, will see the opening of non-essential retail; personal care premises such as hairdressers and nail salons; and public buildings, including libraries and community centres. Indoor leisure facilities such as gyms will also reopen (but only for use by people on their own or in household groups); as will most outdoor attractions and settings including outdoor hospitality venues, zoos, theme parks, and drive-in cinemas. Self-contained accommodation such as campsites and holiday lets, where indoor facilities are not shared with other households, can also reopen.

Hospitality venues will be allowed to serve people outdoors at Step 2 and there will be no need for customers to order a substantial meal with alcoholic drinks and no curfew, although customers must order, eat and drink while seated (‘table service’). Wider social contact rules will apply in all these settings to prevent indoor mixing between different households.

Events

While funerals can continue with up to 30 mourners, the number of people able to attend weddings, receptions and commemorative events such as wakes will rise to 15.

Step 3 - not before 17 May

Social contact

As part of Step 3, no earlier than 17 May, the government will look to continue easing limits on seeing friends and family wherever possible, allowing people to decide on the appropriate level of risk for their circumstances.

This means that most legal restrictions on meeting others outdoors will be lifted - although gatherings of over 30 people will remain illegal. Indoors, the Rule of 6 or 2 households will apply - we will keep under review whether it is safe to increase this.

As soon as possible and by no later than Step 3, we will also update the advice on social distancing between friends and family, including hugging. But until this point, people should continue to keep their distance from anyone not in their household or support bubble.

Business and activities

Most businesses in all but the highest risk sectors will be able to reopen. In all sectors, COVID-Secure guidance will remain in place and businesses may not cater for groups bigger than the legal limits. Indoor hospitality will reopen - and as in Step 2, venues will not have to serve a substantial meal with alcoholic drinks; nor will there be a curfew. Customers will, however, have to order, eat and drink while seated.

Other indoor locations to open up in Step 3 include indoor entertainment venues such as cinemas and children’s play areas; the rest of the accommodation sector, including hotels, hostels and B&Bs; and indoor adult group sports and exercise classes. The government will also allow some larger performances and sporting events in indoor venues with a capacity of 1,000 people or half-full (whichever is a lower number), and in outdoor venues with a capacity of 4,000 people or half-full (whichever is a lower number). In the largest outdoor seated venues, where crowds can be spread out, up to 10,000 people will be able to attend (or a quarter-full, whichever is lower).

Events

Up to 30 people will be able to attend weddings, receptions and wakes, as well as funerals. This limit will also apply to other types of significant life events including bar mitzvahs and christenings.

Review of social distancing

Finally, before Step 4 begins, the government will complete a review of social distancing and other long-term measures that have been put in place to cut transmission. This will inform decisions on the timing and circumstances under which the rules on 1 metre plus, the wearing of face coverings and other measures may be lifted. This will also inform guidance on working from home – which should continue wherever possible until this review is complete.

Step 4 - not before 21 June

Social contact

By Step 4 which will take place no earlier than 21 June, the government hopes to be in a position to remove all legal limits on social contact.

Business, activities and events

We hope to reopen remaining premises, including nightclubs, and ease the restrictions on large events and performances that apply in Step 3. This will be subject to the results of a scientific Events Research Programme to test the outcome of certain pilot events through the spring and summer, where we will trial the use of testing and other techniques to cut the risk of infection. The same Events Research Programme will guide decisions on whether all limits can be removed on weddings and other life events.

As we move through each of these phases in the roadmap, we must all remember that COVID-19 remains a part of our lives. We are going to have to keep living our lives differently to keep ourselves and others safe. We must carry on with ‘hands, face, space’. Comply with the COVID-Secure measures that remain in place. Meet outdoors when we can and keep letting fresh air in. Get tested when needed. Get vaccinated when offered. If we all continue to play our part, we will be that bit closer to a future that is more familiar.

#Obesity a positive tale this morning

It is early Sunday morning. I am just back from my bike ride. I thought I would quickly share this with you.

For perhaps a year now - maybe more - I have often passed the same lady walking with ski poles.

She was a very large lady - walking with a very distinct side to side motion - very reliant on the poles to take her weight. She was not young either. Her efforts looked painful - I am pretty sure they were.

While we never talked (not really the done thing early in the morning) we always smiled and I always had it in mind she was a nice lady.

From time to time I have observed walkers or joggers or bike riders - going at it for a while - but then you do not see them again. But this lady has not been like that. She is out in all weathers and she has kept plugging away.

Gradually I have seen her walking a bit freer - certainly a bit faster - but the most marked thing is the extent that she has gradually slimmed down.

This morning we were approaching a narrow point at the same time and we had a ready opportunity for a  quick chat. I observed that I had seen her out walking all through the winter and "had she lost a fair bit of weight ?". She proudly said she had lost over 6 stone and how wonderful the ski poles had been in helping her. I congratulated her and she said while her hips were still a problem she was feeling much better for the weight loss.

I think she is a great example of what is possible through self help. She is a very determined lady. Clearly her excess weight had become a major issue for her. She has taken personal responsibility and by dogged incremental steps over quite a long period she has made huge progress.

Whether it will result in the pain in her hips fully dissipating I don't know - but I am sure there are a lot of benefits accruing. A friend of mine has been told by his doctor he has to lose weight before they will consider replacing an arthritic knee joint. This might be the case with her hips.

She has done so well and it has not been easy. It is easy to reflect on was the hip damage caused by her obesity but at least she has done something about it. No excuses. No victim mentality. Just some personal effort. Anyway I feel this is a positive tale. Good for her - and she has achieved it with a ready smile even on the gloomiest and forbidding early mornings. xxxx  

  

#RapeUK

I am just sat here listening to Prime Minister's Questions.

A discussion just ensued regarding the shocking prosecution and conviction rates relating to accusations of rape made to the police.

The diabolical statistic is less than 2% of rape cases reported to police result in prosecution and successful conviction.

Everyone agrees this is shocking - it is horrendous. Everyone wants every man who rapes a woman to be prosecuted, found guilty and given a custodial sentence for a very long time. 

Everyone wants every woman to have unequivocal confidence in the legal system that when they report rape they will be treated seriously and compassionately and that the presumption will be they are telling the truth. 

So if everyone agrees that - why is it not happening? 

Why are conviction rates so horribly low. Why are women being left so disillusioned and in many cases so angry?

It seems it comes down to one thing - burden of proof - our legal system - innocent until proved guilty. 

Of course men usually claim consent in defence - and as most often there is only 2 people involved how do you prove it was not consensual (beyond a reasonable doubt) when it is one word against another. How do you establish beyond reasonable doubt that a diabolical crime has been committed? 

This is the great problem. This is the reason so many rape accusations are not even taken to court because the police and particularly the Crown Prosecution Service realise the case has little or no chance of success. 

Apparently one reason for the drop in the number of cases taken to court is the CPS have taken the view it is even worse for a woman to go to court and lose than not to go to court at all.

This is all dreadful. Longer sentences for rape convictions are not going to be the deterrent we all hope they will be if the conviction rate is so ridiculously and unacceptably low. In fact it is possible indeed likely, that the diabolical conviction rates might give confidence to rapists. 

So what can be done? This issue has been wrestled with for years and no one has been able to find a workable and acceptable answer.

It seems to me there is only 2 possible answers :

1) you can find a way of obtaining proof that is enough for a conviction under current legal rules.

or 

2) the burden of proof is reduced or the emphasis changed. 

Starting with option 1). How can proof be obtained in a 1 to 1 situation ? The only thing I can think of is the man is required to produce evidence it was consensual in the form of written or recorded evidence. (most people carry a mobile phone). I am not sure if this is practical - certainly not romantic - but a sort of pre nuptial. The man has to prove it was consensual. I am sure this would be highly problematic in practice.

This leads to 2). The burden of proof changes. It could go from innocent until proved guilty to guilty until proved innocent - or possibly the plaintiff is given the benefit of a reasonable doubt - rather than the defendant.

This is the change many campaigners want to see. The problem is it turns the whole premise of our legal system on its head - guilty until proved innocent or guilty if  there is reasonable doubt (rather than innocent). For many - maybe for the majority - this is a step too far however much they feel the situation regarding rape convictions is wrong. Some argue however that a woman must be believed and / or as men are overwhelmingly the perpetrators of rape they must be the ones that suffer one way or another (not women) !

Are we prepared as a society to increase the chances of hanging an innocent man by lowering the bar to establish guilt? 

Some will argue we should be - because if we don't many men will continue to get away with the terrible crime of rape. Lowering the evidential bar will mean a certain % of convicted men will be innocent - but that is the price worth paying for the greater good!

This is pure speculation on my part. There are about 50000 reported rapes to the police each year. Only 2% of cases are brought to court and convicted.  - so 1000 men. Question - how many of the reported rapes actually occurred? I am going to guess over 90% - so 45000 out of the 50000. That would mean 44000 men per year would be getting away with rape!

Why would a woman claim rape when it is not true? We can speculate. It happens from time to time. Is there a chance that by lowering the evidence threshold more bogus charges might be brought?

In situations like this I try in my own tiny brain to simplify the arguments - to cut to the chase. A brother and sister. The sister is raped but cannot prove it. Just her word. The son is convicted of rape and imprisoned but is innocent. Which is worse. What if you are the parents? 

Everyone wants to see action on rape convictions . But how and what ? The best answer of course is to stop rape happening in the first place. How do you achieve that in reality? That must be for another blog.