The in out referendum is on 23rd June. That allows over 100 days for debate and discussion and for each voter to make their mind up. It is clear very many people are undecided. The various pro and anti lobbies will make their case day after day - a very long and sure to be, tedious campaign. There will be many arguements about "facts". The poorly informed public will call for clarity - for certainty. There will be hollow calls for a positive campaign - positive reasons - a positive vision to justify your vote.
The reality - however it is dressed up, will come down to two fundamental negatives - best described as "fears". Each have massive pull and are very emotive. Most electors will find it almost impossible to decide.
I shall spell them out in the most simplistic terms :
The reason to vote yes - the vote to stay -
Because there is a fear that outside the EU our economy will be weaker - undermining our incomes and jobs. The UK economy will lose markets in the EU - our biggest customer. International companies will not locate here if they cannot get free access to EU markets.The EU will make it difficult for us. They will want us to fail for leaving their club. (they will be concerned about contagion). Anyone arguing we can do better trading with the rest of the world on our own or that our trade with the EU will largely be unaffected cannot prove it. It is a risk.
The reason to vote no - the vote to leave -
Because the public know as EU members we cannot control the number and quality of EU migrants that can choose to come here. The public know UKIP are right. As a result of our membership of the EU there are 500 million EU citizens that have the legal right to live here - and use our public services including NHS and schools. There is nothing we can do about it. Most of the public feel migration is out of control and dramatically threatening and detrimental to the UK and to our lives. Most find it intolerable that any non UK citizen receives any sort of benefit whatsoever from UK taxpayers.
Which negative will frighten the public most and determine their vote? Will it be fear for the economy - jobs and incomes - so vote yes and stay or will it be the fear of ever increasing numbers of migrants crowding us out and ripping us off and being unable to do anything about it. Solve the problem by voting leave.
This is the major dilemma. Everything else is an aside.
PS final thoughts.
This referendum has probably come a couple of years too early for most Brits. With a bit more time a hard decision might have proved unnecessary by the likely implosion of the European project. Many commentators feel the financial crisis and fundamental problems with the Euro have not been solved but the can kicked a bit further along the road. It is also not hard to see fragmentation pressures resulting from an inability to deal with migrants and refugees coming from outside Europe that are going to overwhelm the EU. And finally - it is not just the UK citizens that are fed up with the excesses of Brussels. There are many elections due. There is every likelihood of major rightwing or leftwing coups in major EU countries and their mandates will set them against the EU monster.
Having said all that above I think the establishment in the UK and the EU bandwagon will find it impossible to ultimately accept the enormous implications of a UK exit both on the UK and on the EU project. Consequently while it is laughed out now, in my view there would be further concessions from the EU and a hasty second referendum in the event of a UK no vote. Do we have the nerve for it?
The reality - however it is dressed up, will come down to two fundamental negatives - best described as "fears". Each have massive pull and are very emotive. Most electors will find it almost impossible to decide.
I shall spell them out in the most simplistic terms :
The reason to vote yes - the vote to stay -
Because there is a fear that outside the EU our economy will be weaker - undermining our incomes and jobs. The UK economy will lose markets in the EU - our biggest customer. International companies will not locate here if they cannot get free access to EU markets.The EU will make it difficult for us. They will want us to fail for leaving their club. (they will be concerned about contagion). Anyone arguing we can do better trading with the rest of the world on our own or that our trade with the EU will largely be unaffected cannot prove it. It is a risk.
The reason to vote no - the vote to leave -
Because the public know as EU members we cannot control the number and quality of EU migrants that can choose to come here. The public know UKIP are right. As a result of our membership of the EU there are 500 million EU citizens that have the legal right to live here - and use our public services including NHS and schools. There is nothing we can do about it. Most of the public feel migration is out of control and dramatically threatening and detrimental to the UK and to our lives. Most find it intolerable that any non UK citizen receives any sort of benefit whatsoever from UK taxpayers.
Which negative will frighten the public most and determine their vote? Will it be fear for the economy - jobs and incomes - so vote yes and stay or will it be the fear of ever increasing numbers of migrants crowding us out and ripping us off and being unable to do anything about it. Solve the problem by voting leave.
This is the major dilemma. Everything else is an aside.
PS final thoughts.
This referendum has probably come a couple of years too early for most Brits. With a bit more time a hard decision might have proved unnecessary by the likely implosion of the European project. Many commentators feel the financial crisis and fundamental problems with the Euro have not been solved but the can kicked a bit further along the road. It is also not hard to see fragmentation pressures resulting from an inability to deal with migrants and refugees coming from outside Europe that are going to overwhelm the EU. And finally - it is not just the UK citizens that are fed up with the excesses of Brussels. There are many elections due. There is every likelihood of major rightwing or leftwing coups in major EU countries and their mandates will set them against the EU monster.
Having said all that above I think the establishment in the UK and the EU bandwagon will find it impossible to ultimately accept the enormous implications of a UK exit both on the UK and on the EU project. Consequently while it is laughed out now, in my view there would be further concessions from the EU and a hasty second referendum in the event of a UK no vote. Do we have the nerve for it?
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