#Brexit observations one month after - magnanimity required

You will note from my blog I have been away camping and writing a blog following the Brexit referendum vote has not been practical - and so much has happened of course.

These are my current thoughts :

• A change in the leadership of the Conservative Party and therefore Prime Minister was necessary and it has been accomplished swiftly which is a good outcome. Theresa May was probably the best candidate and it is positive of course that despite campaigning for Leave she fully accepted the legitimacy of the referendum vote and quickly stated unequivocally that "Brexit means Brexit, the need to control the free movement of people and reaffirming the policy to work to get net inward migration down to the 10's of thousands. She is uniting the Tories and has been very impressive. We need strong and clear leadership at this challenging time.
• She has done what she said she would do which is put Brexit campaigners in the frontline of Brexit and trade negotiations.
• Hammond is sound and will do a good job steering our ship through what is and will be tricky and unpredictable waters despite arguing for remain.
• I am concerned about Amber Rudd at the Home Office and her commitment to achieve the very hard task of significantly reducing net migration. She was very pro remain and has not made the same acknowledgement regarding the weight of the referendum outcome and what it should mean at the time of going to press - ha!.
• Prime Minister May has made it a priority to reach out to all parts of the Union. This is wise of course. In practical terms it must be unlikely and undesirable for Scotland to some how remain in both the Union and the EU when the rest of the Union leaves the EU. This seems to be an inevitable collision course and my own view is call Nicola Sturgeons bluff on a second referendum and if the Scots decide to leave the Union - so be it - but it is far from certain that they will.
• There are real but not insurmountable problems with the Irish border. It seems Dublin will be keen to find a practical solution too and I am sure they can. We are fortunate indeed that Ireland is a relatively isolated island rather than a short hop across the Channel (which would make border controls much more problematic.)
• It is clear the democratic Brexit vote does not provide for the free movement of people to be traded off as a condition of access to the single market. This would be a democratic betrayal and unacceptable.
• The apparent rise in cases of racial abuse on the back of Brexit (using the Brexit vote as a pretext) is vile and not what Bexit was about for the vast majority I am sure - and it must be stopped. I think it will with grown up press reporting.
• However immigration numbers was probably the major issue in the referendum. In my view one clear way of dealing with negativity towards immigrants is for the country to be seen to adopt and effectively implement a fair immigration policy that controls the free movement of people from the EU and reduces net migration to an agreed maximum number. (as per the Leave vote) Failure to do so will almost certainly polarise our country and create unwanted and unnecessary community tensions. The democratic wish is for net migration to be significantly reduced and controlled properly so we can plan. 
• There is genuine concern that there will be a further surge in inward migration to beat the full implementation of the Brexit vote. This will need to be addressed with an interim measure. It is unrealistic and unhelpful to call for right to remain for everyone who is here regardless of any other consideration or negotiation.
• Markets, FTSE and sterling seem to have weathered the initial perceived negativity of the vote outcome. Markets are volatile and often divorced from the real world. Project fear was no doubt overstated  but it is highly likely there will be negatives in the performance of the UK economy in the period of negotiation of Brexit exit terms and establishing and bedding in new markets. It is too early for the REAL economy to be effected yet by the Brexit vote but it will probably happen and expect a bumpy ride and reduced growth in the first year or two. On a positive note I also feel our economic fundamentals are relatively strong thanks to the measures the Cameron era have taken and even with less growth in the short term at least the UK remains a good bet for the markets and investors as the foundations are pretty good and certainly very good compared to many countries in the world including southern European ones and even France.
• Slowly there is emerging a softer tone from the EU regarding Brexit terms as realisation dawns that it is everyone's interest to face up to the decision made by the UK electorate and extract the best from it. Cutting off noses to spite faces is often the reflex position but hard nosed business realities will eventually prevail.
• There is some frustration that May has not made clear statements or provided guarantees for the future - however she is right - sensible to not reveal your hand too much - to make concessions - before you start negotiating Brexit. Keep your powder dry. 
• There have been encouraging signs about trade deals with the US, Canada and Australia and NZ - but that is all it is and all it can be at this stage. We are perversely fortunate that the world economy is struggling - BRIC is not growing as it was. World trade is not growing well - so consequently a lot of countries will be very interested in doing new business with the world's 5th largest economy.
• It suits the EU for Article 50 to be invoked immediately. That gives them clarity and control in negotiation - as there is 2 years for completion of the leave process once the clock starts ticking. However if we prepare well, do our research, lay some ground globally and define what we want before we invoke Article 50 we are not over the EU barrel. As a EU member until we start the leave process we have a vote - sometimes a veto and that could be used sensibly and effectively in negotiation.

My final point is the need for magnanimity from everyone

The EU referendum vote was a very challenging and confronting decision to make. Passions flowed. There were few certain "facts" about the effect going forward of a vote to stay or leave - how could there be.  There were and are claims of lies/half truths/exaggeration and misinformation from both sides ie Project Fear from Remain - Osborne's penal emergency budget - Save £350 million per week for the NHS and Turkey joining the EU from Leave. Both sides were guilty of at the very least stretching the point or painting the blackest scenario possible. Both reasonably plead fundamental legitimacy while castigating the other side for employing the tactics they used. I have no wish to defend either side.In the end it became a matter for personal interpretation and sifting through the information and deciding what was important. It is the nature of politics - buyer beware - and of course as the polls tightened panic set in and a panic reaction is part the explanation for the conduct of the campaign which of course was far too personalised and far too sensational at times - from both sides! However at the end of the day it is crucially important we all trust the electorate - particularly politicians and the media. The electorate are not stupid - they were not duped by Leave anymore or less than the Remain voters were duped. The fact is they knew what they wanted - what was important to them - they read between the lines - they cut through the rhetoric - they made up their own minds - some rejected experts - they rejected the status quo - democracy in action. Having said that the size of the Remain vote was large too and there was and is a degree of polarisation that we need to close of course.

But now the vote is cast. We have a democratic system. We cannot and must not question it. The people have spoken in accordance with the rules. We have a democratic majority to leave. There is no future in denying the outcome. Brexit must happen and the referendum was unequivocal - controlling free movement of people is a red line - even if that means no single market.

So what next. Magnanimity required in massive doses - magnanimity from all politicians, from the whole electorate, from commentators and from our current EU partners.

First of all magnanimity is required from all those associated with the Remain campaign - who believe a wrong decision has been made (some claim by unfair means - as referred to above). I would say to them - democracy has spoken - the people have decided in accordance with our democratic system. It is absolutely paramount that that decision is respected. It flows from that acceptance that the decision is made - and we have to make the best of it - rather than try and undermine it. This is the new Prime Ministers position. Her side - Remain lost. No point in whinging. We can't turn the clock back. Lets get behind the decision and make Brexit a success. (it is sickening to hear people like Owen Smith calling for a second referendum to authorise terms of Brexit - or the dreadful wealthy vested interests agitating through Michcon de Reya).

Magnanimity is required from all those associated with the Leave campaign. Their victory was a close one. Market reaction so far, while not in terms of project fear does not mean Leave predictions of a gentle bump has been proven right, yet. There are many potential problems looming. It will be very unhelpful to say the least if all involved repeatedly claim we told you so - we were right you were wrong. There is no mileage in that. We need to come together - respect the vote and make the best of it without hubris or recrimination.

We can hope for magnanimity from our current EU partners. We do not wish them ill. We do not want to be successful at their direct cost necessarily. All that is happened is the people of the UK have democratically voted to show the EU is not working for them and wish to leave the club. Above all democracy has to be respected graciously one would hope. The Farage sneering at the EU Parliament is just the sort of behaviour we don't want. Hopefully the EU is not a sinking ship or a failed project. With maturity and magnanimity on both sides we can continue to work with Europe to build a more prosperous safe and secure world for all our peoples by acknowledging the decision made by the British people and their reasons for doing so.

I remain very optimistic. A great and transforming decision for our society and all our futures I believe.