#GeneralElection2017

Theresa May has triggered a General Election on June 8th. To do so she has had secure a two thirds majority in the House of Commons to comply with the 5 Year Fixed Term Parliament legislation. That was achieved yesterday with a majority of over 500.

I will give below my answers to two fundamental questions that arise as a result. They are:

1) Why she has done it now - particularly as she has previously ruled it out?

2) What will be the likely outcome?

Question 1) - why now? Her critics - her detractors - say it is naked opportunism - bare politics ie the Labour opposition is in disarray and she sees an easy chance of increasing the Conservative majority and extend her tenure by at least another 2 years. They point out that she previously publically ruled this course of action out as stability in the face of the Brexit negotiations was paramount and a General election would undermine it. She is therefore putting personal and party ambition above the national interest and broken her word and consequently cannot be trusted. This in my opinion is a harsh and unfair (silly) assessment because I believe it has been done for the wider national interest but it would be disingenuous not to concede bolstering both her and her parties position is not a highly desirable political spin off. So why?

• TM is committed to delivering the referendum outcome. It is the right and democratic thing to do. Stating the obvious - achieving Brexit is a massive political challenge. Stating the obvious TM wants to get the best possible Brexit deal from the EU. In order to do so our government have to be strong and determined in negotiation. That can only be achieved if our leadership is secure and clear sighted. Evidently with a small majority, the opposition playing political games with the issue - and the House of Lords threatening to overplay their hand - she does not feel she has the clear mandate she needs. This GE will hopefully make her position unequivocal and will massively help our negotiating position. This is the real world.
• If the 5 year fixed term parliament ran its full course the necessary General Election would coincide with the end of the Brexit negotiation period. It is highly likely this will be the most critical period and to have the two falling at the same time would create weakness and insecurity and likely be too much to handle efficiently. Holding a GE now avoids this happening and further there is a unique window of opportunity now (a clear space while the EU are formulating their negotiating position and before negotiations actually start.) 
• Her opponents regularly snipe that TM has no personal mandate because she was not elected at a GE. This addresses that issue and is highly desirable.

With regard accusations of U Turn etc - this is just juvenile politicking. Obviously the need for confidence and continuity were paramount immediately after the referendum. She had no choice in the national interest but to rule out an early election. As the issues around the Brexit process have become clear it is very evident it is now in the national interest that she secures a clear and timely fresh mandate. This is not self serving opportunism but mature and responsible leadership. It is not a U Turn - but a wise decision based on the change of circumstances in which she now has to operate. (in the referendum debate NO remainers referred to the issue of the type of Brexit - it has only since their loss that they have come up with soft and hard Brexit. There are no such things of course. There is only Brexit.) She needs a new democratic mandate to make Brexit clear and to counter the remoaner rearguard. This is in our interest because to half leave would be the worst possible outcome for our nation.

2) What will be the likely outcome? While nothing is guaranteed it is likely the following will happen :

• There are objective grounds for predicting the Conservatives will secure a massive majority - say 100 - 200. Rational analysis of the Corbyn led Labour party is they are unfit to lead our nation and this is widely accepted by many of their own MP's.
• The Labour Party are all over the place on Brexit and will try and make this GE about anything other than Brexit. I doubt they will succeed but they might.
• I think the SNP will be damaged in the GE. My feeling is they have overplayed the nationalist card, have aligned too strongly with the EU and free movement of people and their day to day management of the Scottish economy is not as good as they pretend. These chickens will gradually start to come home to roost.
• UKIP will be badly marginalized as long as TM continues with her current Brexit stance in the soon to be published Tory manifesto.
• The Liberal Democrats will benefit from a dysfunctional Labour Party and will suck up an anti Brexit protest vote.
• The Conservatives will rightly project the case to fear a coalition government of Labour/SNP/Greens and probably Liberals or a re run of a Conservative/Liberal coalition. At this critical time in our nations history this outcome would be a disaster and the electorate would be extremely foolish to allow it to happen.
• I suspect objective and rational might not be enough and the final outcome will be a majority of 50 - 100. This outcome will certainly be enough to have justified the GE and assure the best chance of a properly managed and negotiated Brexit. (In fact too big a majority may pose problems in itself by leading to indiscipline in the back benches.) It would also bring about the resignation of Jeremy Corbyn.

However my concern is the content of the yet to be published Tory manifesto. I see this as a potential torpedo that could shift the whole momentum of the GE. I shall explain :-

As we seen in the last budget when the Chancellor had to roll back on NI changes because they conflicted with the Cameron manifesto - what is in or out of the manifesto is potentially political dynamite. The May government would certainly like to remove ring fenced pledges and so called "promises" not to do things in the areas of tax and spend. Mainly these things relate to budgetary matters and the hard and unpalatable actions required to bring down the deficit further. One such is the pension "triple lock". This is widely held to be very expensive, too favorable to pensioners and at the expense of younger people. However watering down this mechanism at this time - while maybe appropriate and maybe fair could easily upset the electoral apple cart at this critical time. There is also some talk of removing the undertaking to get immigration down to the 10's of thousands - and replace it with something along the lines of the "immigration numbers we need" which might be more practical. However such a move will help UKIP and lose the Conservatives votes.

So TM must not be too greedy with her manifesto. She would be wise to keep it simple and non controversial in order to keep the focus on "strong competent leadership" to secure the best possible Brexit. Almost everything else has to be secondary at this time in my view. Rome was not built in one term - ha!