Tomorrow is the General Election and early tomorrow morning I fly to Ireland. I am delighted to be going to Ireland for a short break but at the time we booked it the General Election had not been called.
On the 21st April I wrote a blog General Election 2017. I have just re read it. To some extent my worst fears expressed in that blog have happened. Theresa May did over estimate her position and became cavalier with regard the pensioner vote. She has got away with removing the triple lock but went too far in the reform of social care funding. She then had to hastily back track looking weak and unstable instead of the Tory mantra "strong and stable". Crass. It has cost the Tories.
At the same time "folksy" Corbyn has had a good campaign. The Tories have got on everyone's nerves continually focusing on his long past associations with the IRA etc. It hasn't stuck. He is bumbling but he comes over as a well meaning decent bloke and the public by and large like that.
So the polls have massively narrowed apparently. It is now close.
But I do not think so. The Liberals are going nowhere. The SNP will fall back gradually. The Sturgeon bubble has burst or at least there is a slow puncture. Theresa May has done enough to sweep up the UKIP vote and while many people might have flirted with voting for Corbyn when it comes to the X in the box time I don't think they will do it. Deep down they know he is not Prime Minister material. They know that there is no magic money tree and they know we cannot possibly send him forward to negotiate Brexit on our behalf. He is not credible and neither is his team of also rans (Emily Thornbury & Dianne Abbot particularly come to mind). It is not the right time to stick it up the Tories. So for all these reasons I think it will be a comfortable win for Theresa May - but it will sadly be a win as the least bad option rather than a win that has galvanized the country in recognition of "strong and stable" leadership. Theresa May is certainly no Margaret Thatcher mark 2 right now. A pity because that is exactly what we need.
We are going to Ireland to trek up Carrauntoohil the central peak in the Macgillycuddy Reeks range in County Kerry. It is the highest point in Ireland. We will also have a couple of nights in Dublin. Normally I stay up all night to listen to the General Election results come in. I suspect I will be doing the same again but it might be more difficult. The result will be fascinating and there is so much at stake with Brexit to come. If I am wrong and Labour do pull out a miracle win I might be tempted to never return - ha!
On the 21st April I wrote a blog General Election 2017. I have just re read it. To some extent my worst fears expressed in that blog have happened. Theresa May did over estimate her position and became cavalier with regard the pensioner vote. She has got away with removing the triple lock but went too far in the reform of social care funding. She then had to hastily back track looking weak and unstable instead of the Tory mantra "strong and stable". Crass. It has cost the Tories.
At the same time "folksy" Corbyn has had a good campaign. The Tories have got on everyone's nerves continually focusing on his long past associations with the IRA etc. It hasn't stuck. He is bumbling but he comes over as a well meaning decent bloke and the public by and large like that.
So the polls have massively narrowed apparently. It is now close.
But I do not think so. The Liberals are going nowhere. The SNP will fall back gradually. The Sturgeon bubble has burst or at least there is a slow puncture. Theresa May has done enough to sweep up the UKIP vote and while many people might have flirted with voting for Corbyn when it comes to the X in the box time I don't think they will do it. Deep down they know he is not Prime Minister material. They know that there is no magic money tree and they know we cannot possibly send him forward to negotiate Brexit on our behalf. He is not credible and neither is his team of also rans (Emily Thornbury & Dianne Abbot particularly come to mind). It is not the right time to stick it up the Tories. So for all these reasons I think it will be a comfortable win for Theresa May - but it will sadly be a win as the least bad option rather than a win that has galvanized the country in recognition of "strong and stable" leadership. Theresa May is certainly no Margaret Thatcher mark 2 right now. A pity because that is exactly what we need.
We are going to Ireland to trek up Carrauntoohil the central peak in the Macgillycuddy Reeks range in County Kerry. It is the highest point in Ireland. We will also have a couple of nights in Dublin. Normally I stay up all night to listen to the General Election results come in. I suspect I will be doing the same again but it might be more difficult. The result will be fascinating and there is so much at stake with Brexit to come. If I am wrong and Labour do pull out a miracle win I might be tempted to never return - ha!
No comments:
Post a Comment