It is the morning of Saturday 24th November. This weekend Theresa May goes to Brussels to sign the Brexit withdrawal agreement before bringing it back to our Parliament in an attempt to get it ratified. The Government is under siege from all sides of the Brexit debate regarding the terms of the agreement and it appears unlikely to get through the House of Commons. However the Government probably has 2 weeks to change MP's minds and to put pressure on them to do so. It is now obvious their strategy is to go over the heads of MP's to engage with the public. Their hope is if they can win the public over - the public will put pressure on their MP's to vote in favour of the deal.
Last night I listened to Government Minister Rory Stewart voice the May line and this morning Philip Hammond the Chancellor of the Exchequer used the exact same arguments to sell the deal.
They both used 2 basic arguments which are as follows :
1) The Brexit deal is a compromise in order to reflect the wishes of both leave and remainers in an attempt to heal the divisions in our society - to bring us back together. Neither side get exactly what they want but there is something in it for everyone - ie freedom of movement ends - but we also stay closely aligned to the EU for trade purposes. The spin is "we need a deal to heal divisions in our society" - as justification for a soft (half) Brexit - a BRINO.
2) The Irish backstop is a nominal arrangement that we will never need because a comprehensive trade agreement will be in place before the end of the 2 year transition period . (as per the political declaration attached to the withdrawal agreement). If it is not we can extend the transition period to avoid the Irish backstop. So no need to worry about it - it will not be needed!
I wish to strongly refute these 2 arguments ( and fortunately it appears there will be a majority in the House of Commons that agree).
I will deal with point 1) above first :
Sometimes in life there is a binary choice. You go left or right - you can't go in two directions at the same time. The referendum was one of those binary choices. We leave or we stay within the EU. The worst outcome is we are half hearted - half leave. We then have restrictions and costs that undermine our opportunities of making Brexit a success. The worst of all worlds.
Talk of healing and compromise at this stage as justification for the terms offered is a cop out (spin). The spin is necessary because the deal on offer evidences the rotten job the May team have made in negotiating the withdrawal agreement (which in legally binding - including handing over the 39 billion) - but guarantees us nothing on trade going forward because the attached "political declaration" is a wish list only and not legally binding. Everything in the political declaration is still to be negotiated in the 2 year transition period which starts after we nominally leave the EU on 29th March 2019
We remain in the EU in all but name in the two year transition phase (ie have to pay in - have to follow the EU rules - cannot trade on our own terms outside the EU) - but of course unlike now we will have no seat at the table that makes the rules - we just have to take them (which is where the vassal state observation stems from.) We cannot get out of this situation without incurring the Irish backstop unless a trade deal is negotiated or we pay a lot more money to remain in the EU jurisdiction by negotiating an extension of the transition phase. .
Of course the original plan when we set out was to have the withdrawal agreement and the terms of trade going forward all wrapped up in one legally binding document at the same time - but it evidently has not happened. The situation we find ourselves in now reflects the lack of confidence and a lack of leadership the May leadership has shown both in standing up to the diktats of the EU and to embracing the opportunities the referendum decision offered up. As a consequence the deal does not deliver on clearly respecting the red lines determined by the Brexit vote which were acknowledged in May's original Lancaster House speech. The May deal does NOT deliver Brexit. It is more BRINO (Brexit in name only) than BREXIT.
With regard to point 2) May wants us to believe the EU will now enter into negotiating a trade deal with reasonableness and speed ( amazingly not just because of the political declaration but because the terms offered to us under the withdrawal agreement are so attractive - ie we have been allowed to cherry pick!). But unless you are naïve why would you believe that? Assuming May is not naïve the only explanation is she is a remainer trying to keep the UK in the EU in all but name (BRINO).
Why would the EU offer us a good trade deal once we have signed the legally binding withdrawal agreement and handed over our money? They have us where they want us - tied into the EU - following their rules - unable to make trade deals with the rest of the world on our own terms! If there is no trade deal agreement they know all we can do is incur the Irish backstop (which they know we could never allow to happen) or go back to them cap in hand to negotiate an extension of the transition period which amongst other things will mean handing over another 10 billion or so per year. This could go on for ever. We might literally NEVER be able to leave - unless we concede trade terms in favour of the EU. So why would they offer us a good trade deal? Why would they offer us one quickly? The situation is even worse than it seems. Fishing will be part of the trade deal. Gibraltar will be part of the trade deal. If we do not give every individual country of the 27 what they want they have the individual legal right to scupper the whole trade negotiation. Spain will be able to say no trade deal unless you give us joint sovereignty over Gibraltar. France will be able to say no trade deal unless you let our fishermen fish in your waters! What do we say? We would be totally over a barrel. We would be in a shockingly weak position.
According to the May team this madness, this sell out - is all in the name of compromise - to bring the British people together ie the end of free movement but at the same time protecting jobs (which remainers are worried about) by retaining the closest possible trade arrangements with the EU.
Can you remember when there was a big debate about joining the EURO. The country was divided. We did not adopt it in the end. The countries division ended on the issue when the EURO crisis showed we had made the right decision to stay out. This is how the divisions on Brexit will be healed. They would be best healed by Brexit being acknowledged as a success - as the right decision - but this will take time. It can only happen if the British Government start acting as if Brexit is what it is - a fantastic opportunity to create a new dynamic - to showcase what a fantastic innovative people we are - to engage with the whole world on trade and to be sovereign again with democracy at the core of our society. What we have had from May is a travesty. A wimpy apology for Brexit - a grubby little compromise that no one wants and is the worst of all worlds - yes worse than staying in.
What we need is Brexit as understood in the referendum by those that voted leave. It is clear the EU are not going to play ball at this stage. They are exploiting our indecision. We want a clean break - not half in - no transition periods.We must find the courage to respect the democratic will of the people and walk away. We will be the better for it - will have more self respect - a better chance of true healing and a fantastic opportunity to shape our own destiny and make for a bright future on our own terms.
It is dangerous playing fast and loose with democracy. It is dangerous pretending we can go in two directions at the same time - we will be pulled apart.
No deal is better than a bad deal. May's deal is worse than bad.
BREXIT is NO DEAL. No deal is the clean break we voted for.
Last night I listened to Government Minister Rory Stewart voice the May line and this morning Philip Hammond the Chancellor of the Exchequer used the exact same arguments to sell the deal.
They both used 2 basic arguments which are as follows :
1) The Brexit deal is a compromise in order to reflect the wishes of both leave and remainers in an attempt to heal the divisions in our society - to bring us back together. Neither side get exactly what they want but there is something in it for everyone - ie freedom of movement ends - but we also stay closely aligned to the EU for trade purposes. The spin is "we need a deal to heal divisions in our society" - as justification for a soft (half) Brexit - a BRINO.
2) The Irish backstop is a nominal arrangement that we will never need because a comprehensive trade agreement will be in place before the end of the 2 year transition period . (as per the political declaration attached to the withdrawal agreement). If it is not we can extend the transition period to avoid the Irish backstop. So no need to worry about it - it will not be needed!
I wish to strongly refute these 2 arguments ( and fortunately it appears there will be a majority in the House of Commons that agree).
I will deal with point 1) above first :
Sometimes in life there is a binary choice. You go left or right - you can't go in two directions at the same time. The referendum was one of those binary choices. We leave or we stay within the EU. The worst outcome is we are half hearted - half leave. We then have restrictions and costs that undermine our opportunities of making Brexit a success. The worst of all worlds.
Talk of healing and compromise at this stage as justification for the terms offered is a cop out (spin). The spin is necessary because the deal on offer evidences the rotten job the May team have made in negotiating the withdrawal agreement (which in legally binding - including handing over the 39 billion) - but guarantees us nothing on trade going forward because the attached "political declaration" is a wish list only and not legally binding. Everything in the political declaration is still to be negotiated in the 2 year transition period which starts after we nominally leave the EU on 29th March 2019
We remain in the EU in all but name in the two year transition phase (ie have to pay in - have to follow the EU rules - cannot trade on our own terms outside the EU) - but of course unlike now we will have no seat at the table that makes the rules - we just have to take them (which is where the vassal state observation stems from.) We cannot get out of this situation without incurring the Irish backstop unless a trade deal is negotiated or we pay a lot more money to remain in the EU jurisdiction by negotiating an extension of the transition phase. .
Of course the original plan when we set out was to have the withdrawal agreement and the terms of trade going forward all wrapped up in one legally binding document at the same time - but it evidently has not happened. The situation we find ourselves in now reflects the lack of confidence and a lack of leadership the May leadership has shown both in standing up to the diktats of the EU and to embracing the opportunities the referendum decision offered up. As a consequence the deal does not deliver on clearly respecting the red lines determined by the Brexit vote which were acknowledged in May's original Lancaster House speech. The May deal does NOT deliver Brexit. It is more BRINO (Brexit in name only) than BREXIT.
With regard to point 2) May wants us to believe the EU will now enter into negotiating a trade deal with reasonableness and speed ( amazingly not just because of the political declaration but because the terms offered to us under the withdrawal agreement are so attractive - ie we have been allowed to cherry pick!). But unless you are naïve why would you believe that? Assuming May is not naïve the only explanation is she is a remainer trying to keep the UK in the EU in all but name (BRINO).
Why would the EU offer us a good trade deal once we have signed the legally binding withdrawal agreement and handed over our money? They have us where they want us - tied into the EU - following their rules - unable to make trade deals with the rest of the world on our own terms! If there is no trade deal agreement they know all we can do is incur the Irish backstop (which they know we could never allow to happen) or go back to them cap in hand to negotiate an extension of the transition period which amongst other things will mean handing over another 10 billion or so per year. This could go on for ever. We might literally NEVER be able to leave - unless we concede trade terms in favour of the EU. So why would they offer us a good trade deal? Why would they offer us one quickly? The situation is even worse than it seems. Fishing will be part of the trade deal. Gibraltar will be part of the trade deal. If we do not give every individual country of the 27 what they want they have the individual legal right to scupper the whole trade negotiation. Spain will be able to say no trade deal unless you give us joint sovereignty over Gibraltar. France will be able to say no trade deal unless you let our fishermen fish in your waters! What do we say? We would be totally over a barrel. We would be in a shockingly weak position.
According to the May team this madness, this sell out - is all in the name of compromise - to bring the British people together ie the end of free movement but at the same time protecting jobs (which remainers are worried about) by retaining the closest possible trade arrangements with the EU.
Can you remember when there was a big debate about joining the EURO. The country was divided. We did not adopt it in the end. The countries division ended on the issue when the EURO crisis showed we had made the right decision to stay out. This is how the divisions on Brexit will be healed. They would be best healed by Brexit being acknowledged as a success - as the right decision - but this will take time. It can only happen if the British Government start acting as if Brexit is what it is - a fantastic opportunity to create a new dynamic - to showcase what a fantastic innovative people we are - to engage with the whole world on trade and to be sovereign again with democracy at the core of our society. What we have had from May is a travesty. A wimpy apology for Brexit - a grubby little compromise that no one wants and is the worst of all worlds - yes worse than staying in.
What we need is Brexit as understood in the referendum by those that voted leave. It is clear the EU are not going to play ball at this stage. They are exploiting our indecision. We want a clean break - not half in - no transition periods.We must find the courage to respect the democratic will of the people and walk away. We will be the better for it - will have more self respect - a better chance of true healing and a fantastic opportunity to shape our own destiny and make for a bright future on our own terms.
It is dangerous playing fast and loose with democracy. It is dangerous pretending we can go in two directions at the same time - we will be pulled apart.
No deal is better than a bad deal. May's deal is worse than bad.
BREXIT is NO DEAL. No deal is the clean break we voted for.
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