#Brexit - what a mess - what will happen?

I am writing this blog for my own sanity - to order my own thoughts. Yesterday was a dramatic day - with resignations - including Dominic Raab (the second Brexit secretary to go) and brutal evidence in parliament that Theresa May's /EU agreement will not carry the house. No doubt there will be further significant developments  in the next few days - including resignations and a leadership challenge. Stating the obvious the country is in a maelstrom. The people have been let down by their politicians

Before I talk about the future I want to quickly get this off my chest. How did we get in this mess!? In my view the root of all our problems is too many MP's have played fast and loose with our democracy. It is clear the people voted in the referendum for the red lines Theresa May acknowledged (and undertook to deliver) in her Lancaster House speech - ie full control of our money, borders and laws and an ability to be able to trade on our own terms with the rest of the world. (and maintain the integrity of the UK including NI). Too many MP's have been able to say they respect the decision of the referendum ( and that they voted for article 50 ) and then proceed to say we should stay in the single market or a customs union. It was never and never will be possible to have both. They have NOT respected the referendum decision. They are anti democrats as a result - and they have caused this problem. Theresa May has been too weak. Red lines are red lines - or at least should be. She has caved in to an economic rationale that puts GDP and business interests ahead of freedom and democracy. (like many leavers I do not accept the economic pessimism anyway - I believe the UK will do fine engaging with the greater world - we will be successful standing on our own too feet).

Anyway what can - what is likely to happen now?

• Theresa May's deal cannot (extremely unlikely) get through the Commons. (because it does not deliver the referendum result and her Lancaster house red lines). Naively - I believe - she still thinks she can as it is Hobsons Choice - the only deal on offer - (best possible deal.)
• I do not think the Conservative Party will let her try because if she is defeated she might try and do a deal with Labour MP's by offering an even softer Brexit.
• Therefore I see a leadership challenge coming quickly.
• TM will fight to hang on but I assume she will be badly wounded.
• I am not sure who will emerge.
• Whoever emerges they will be up against the deadline of Article 50 expiry which is 29th March 2019 when by Act of Parliament (and therefore enshrined in our law) the UK leaves the EU. 
• I cannot see the Article 50 expiry date being extended - firstly because I cannot see a majority in parliament prepared to ask for it. Many MP's are saying the public mailbags are pleading with them to just get on with it - and business of course more than anything want certainty - so they can plan. Secondly I think the EU have made it clear they will not agree to it because there is nothing left to negotiate - they have gone as far as they can go. However the EU have indicated more time might be allowed for another referendum or a general election (in the hope a decision to leave will be reversed).

So what are the possibilities?

• TM hangs on and her plan is carried.

or

• TM hangs on and her plan is rejected so she proposes a softer deal which more Labour MP's can accept to get it through Parliament (but I assume more Conservatives will not).

or

• TM (but surely she would have to step down and let someone else do it) quickly agrees to try and negotiate a harder Brexit to carry more Conservatives. This is unlikely because she has nailed her colours (credibility) to the deal she is proposing - and anyway she believes the EU will not budge. (Brexiteers remaining in TM's Cabinet appear to believe more palatable amendments of the proposed withdrawal agreement are still possible and their support is conditional on trying.) 

or

• TM is replaced by a Brexiteer who rejects TM's plan.
• He/she makes overtures to Brussels for an improved deal.
• That is roundly rejected.
• We leave on WTO terms (but this has to be carried by parliament).

or

• as there is an impasse in Parliament a second referendum is agreed.

or 

• somehow there is a 2/3rds majority of MP's prepared to vote for a snap General Election.

In my view a second referendum or a General Election are the least likely. Why? They do not resolve the issues ie freedom/perceived economic risk and there would be greatly increased and damaging uncertainty (with the huge task of negotiating an extension to Article 50). I also believe there is enough MP's including Jeremey Corbyn who believe not delivering Brexit based on the democratic 2016 referendum will shatter our democracy going forward and that is a terrible prospect for our society - so no 2nd referendum. I cannot see Conservatives voting for a general election at this time!

So in my view it does come down to TM's deal (or a softened deal - BRINO). I cannot see it finding a majority in the house. She might be pressured back to Brussels by her brexiteer cabinet members for a harder (truer) Brexit. If it is tinkering it might get somewhere but major changes (changes that will make a significant difference to voting intensions) are unlikely to be forthcoming and there are severe time pressures to meet. TM's strategy is evidently "I believe in the deal I have negotiated and it is the best we will get" and is hoping the stark choice - my deal or no deal will be enough because a bad deal is better than no deal! (the irony)

If she is replaced it is WTO rules. (it is widely held there is no majority for this as it will be so damaging but ultimately it might be the only outcome that respects the democratic imperative of the referendum result and in the end I think enough MP's will accept this is the most important consideration - otherwise our democracy is dangerously trashed for generations). Planning can be stepped up and I think in the end it is the lesser of all evils and in a practical way provides clarity and a type of certainty going forward.

I am therefore advocating/expecting WTO rules. Why?

• In the short term it will be economically damaging and messy - (but not disastrously so. However Brexiteers were always prepared for - even expecting this. The people indicated they were prepared to accept economic risk for freedom and self determination when they voted.)
• But it secures our democratic system - crucial for our society going forward.
• And business is by definition entrepreneurial. Once they know what is happening they can and will respond positively.
• Thereafter the country can build to go forward and the EU issue is resolved.
• Of course the EU will be angered but commonsense and business realities will eventually prevail.
• I am one that believes the EU project is failing and will fail. As with the Euro/single currency opt out - our divided society will heal once it is evident it was a good decision to leave. 

Otherwise all I can see is endless debate, division, timewasting and uncertainty. Who wants that?

The clincher -  democracy has to prevail. We voted to leave to become sovereign again. Anything less cannot wash - the red lines have to be adhered to.