#Brexit we are at the cliff edge again (or are we?) - what will happen this time?

While the cliff edge is technically April 11th - prior steps have to be triggered now if the UK is to avoid leaving on 12th April with a "no deal".

This morning there is a crunch meeting of the Cabinet. Decisions have to be made (but will they be - can they be?)

This is the raw material they have to work with I believe.

• Half the cabinet including TM can only accept TM's deal (Withdrawal Agreement) or No Deal.
• Half the cabinet can only contemplate TM's deal or a soft Brexit (Brino).
• Each half are threatening to resign if TM backs No Deal (as seen as too damaging for the economy) or a soft Brexit (seen as Brexit in name only - Brino - and not what people voted for).
• TM has previously indicated she cannot take forward a soft Brexit because she does not believe it delivers on the referendum result. But will she agree to agree to it in deference to some of her Cabinet and to the emerging consensus in Parliament?
• TM likely to keep pushing her own deal to try and maintain just a gesture of cabinet unity rather than forcing/allowing a nuclear decision to be made. (even though it is only wishful thinking it could ever get through with the current back stop).
• Parliament are going to cobble together a majority for a soft Brexit - but it is indicative only - not legally binding unless Parliament can make it so in the short time they have. There are massive constitutional issues here.
• TM has said she will listen to Parliament but neither she or many of her party will allow soft Brexit to happen. (How can it work that Parliament try and force TM to go back to the EU to negotiate something that is not Government policy!?)
• Many in the Tory party have been fighting for Brexit for years. They also believe not delivering it will be unthinkable because it will trash our democracy.There is probably enough of them that feel so strongly about it they would be prepared to force a General Election rather than concede a soft Brexit (Brino) or a referendum. Deep principles are at stake for some.
• Some still believe (hope) there is a chance the EU might even at this late stage offer a concession on the back stop to avoid a no deal reality because that will be so damaging to the EU too. TM's deal gets over the line.
• However you look at a second referendum or "peoples vote" it creates more problems than it solves and will not happen. It will also not happen because it is a blatant attempt to stop Brexit and thwart democracy.(The Labour Party do not want to be held responsible for thwarting Brexit)

So what will happen in the next day or two? My view.

• To preserve unity TM can only say at the end of the Cabinet meeting she believes "the only way for a No deal to be avoided is for Parliament to agree a deal" and will confirm that some how there will be MV4.
• She might say she is talking to the EU for further concessions to help her deal negotiate parliament !
• If I am wrong and a decision is made there could be mass resignations in the next 48 hours - (that might include TM herself but I doubt it because I think she would have stood against a soft Brexit in favour of countenancing a No Deal as a last resort.) Either way can the Government survive? Will this not create a General Election in itself? Possibly - depends on scale. Some Tories might move to the new Change Party!.
• Parliament will pass an indicative vote for a soft Brexit and they will try and force it on the government as the will of Parliament.
• If TM attempts to follow Parliaments lead there will be a Tory revolt forcing a General Election.
• If Parliament is able to force the indicative soft Brexit option on the government by making it law - the Government will fall and there will be a General Election.
• TM herself has previously indicated she will not be prepared to go back to the EU and ask for a long delay and enter into EU elections in May because she personally feels she would be betraying the British people and the decision they made. (What would be the purpose?)
• But there will have to be a delay past 12th April if TM's deal does not pass by 10th April unless there is a No Deal leave. Someone will have to do it !?

All I can see isTM's deal finally passes (considered unlikely but all the options are unlikely!), No Deal happens (we leave on 12th April) or TM goes and there is a General Election. (I think the EU might agree a delay in Article 50 for a General Election without the need to participate in the May EU elections on the basis that if the new government decide to rescind Article 50 they would be able to hold EU elections afterwards.) As I have said - the only thing that could change this - the EU makes a cliff edge concession to get TM's deal (withdrawal agreement) over the line.

(Opinion polls are now putting Labour ahead in the polls - so it is easy to argue that makes a  General Election less likely and possibly TM's deal more likely to be voted through. Labour have played a blinder with their strategy. They have managed to ride all the Brexit options at the same time - including supporting a second referendum and supporting the end of free movement! The reality is they have been self serving throughout - but they are getting away with it and more and more people are laying the Brexit fiasco (nightmare) at the Tories door.)

My own view is a No Deal is the best and most practical option for the UK. There will be pain - there will be petulance - but as they say no gain without pain - and Brexit was about so much more than jobs and the economy - it was about democratic freedom - and our democracy would remain in tact.

The Grand National is on Saturday - with that in mind my punt on the outcome for Brexit. Only 3 runners - TM's deal passes, General Election, No deal. Too close to call - so I am going to back what I want. As I have said my horse is NO Deal!

POST SCRIPT - Wednesday morning 4/3/2019

Surprised and disappointed by the Prime ministers new strategy. She seems to conceding a soft Brexit (brino) and seeking to ensure the Labour Party are held partly culpable. Many in her own party are outraged. Might be clever politics in the short term - but a democratic travesty and will be a disastrous decision for the UK going forward. I doubt she will get away with it unless there is a failure to find agreement, the EU refuse to offer a further extension and we move to NO Deal.