It is 8.00 am. I am just back from my early morning bike ride along the sea wall. I am so lucky to be able to do it each day - sometimes twice a day. It is early spring - or at least it feels like it. The air was still and cold and clean. The tide was out. The bright sun is burning off the haze and shining on the beach puddles.The light is fantastic. Everything is lovely - and then there is BREXIT!.
I had a mad thought this morning! Cut yourself off from the world. Disengage. Live life in my bubble - what is the point of 24 hour news? What is the point of bothering about Brexit or not - or anything else! I chuckle to myself. I am a long way from being able to step away - unless I can go off deep ocean sailing again! It wasn't long before I started thinking about writing this blog - felt compelled to do so for my sanity - ha!
Yesterday in Parliament confirmed my ire. In majority our MP's are self serving and duplicitous. They have let our country down - they continue to do so. They have played fast and loose with democracy. They should be ashamed of themselves.
A quick recap. Over 40 years ago we had a referendum to confirm our entry into the Common Market. Gradually the Common Market became something much different - much more impactful or pervasive in our lives - the EU - a political group of 28 nations. Not everyone agreed with this development - so after 40 years it was not unreasonable to give the British people the opportunity to vote on whether the wanted to stay in the EU or not.
In 2016 we had the referendum in which we were told emphatically - would be and in out referendum - a once in a generation opportunity. (and everyone accepted this at the time) It was clearly understood leaving meant taking back control of our laws, money, borders and to be able to trade freely with the rest of the world. The Government's own leaflet dropped through every letter box in the land said a vote to leave would mean leaving the single market and customs union.
What should have happened on the morning following the referendum result is all MP's, all political parties to have said - the people have spoken in a democratic referendum - it is incumbent on us to deliver the Brexit they have voted for - which means securing the 4 red lines that were set in the debate - even if we do not agree with it - even if we feel it is an act of self harm. This was and is (should be) the democratic imperative. Quite obviously too it would have been the most sensible thing to do in order to ensure the EU would take us seriously when negotiating an acceptable future trade deal. (Therefore in the interest of the nation - of all constituents - once the decision to leave was made.)
That is not what happened. What has happened is our shameful MP's have played fast and loose with our democratic system. They have used weasel words "I support the referendum decision" but I am going to advocate a BRINO or pressed for a second "binding" referendum (People's Vote). Many have conspired with the EU against the national interest. By this shocking duplicity MP's have all but destroyed the democratic thread that holds our complex society together and at the same time played right into the hands of the EU negotiators - undermining our chances of a good deal with the EU.
I would like to say here, a full Brexit as described in the pre referendum debate, upheld in the Prime ministers Lancaster House speech and the Tory party election manifesto, is the consistent position of the ERG group. The ERG group are now being refereed to as extremists and right wing. This is a travesty and completely wrong. The ERG are the only ones who properly represent the voting majority of the British people. In the same way reference to a Tory Brexit is completely bogus - the Brexit majority is drawn from both major parties.
So where are we now? What is going to happen?
Well the Prime Minister (under pressure from remainers in her cabinet like Amber Rudd and the take "no deal" off the table mob) made the following undertakings to Parliament yesterday :
1) She is currently still negotiating with the EU for legally binding changes to the back stop agreement.
2) She will bring the amended Brexit agreement back for a meaningful vote in Parliament on the 12th March.
3) If she loses she will sanction a vote to extend Article 50 and a vote taking "no deal" off the table.
What is the effect of this statement?
Given the EU does not want the UK to leave and if we do - it wants us to regret it (as a lesson to other EU countries) - the effect of the PM's forced announcement as in 3) above is to weaken her negotiating hand. If the EU really believed the UK would go through with a "no deal" Brexit, they would make the necessary concessions in the back stop to prevent it (as no deal hurts them badly). However Parliament has shown it will not accept "no deal". It follows if there can be "no deal" - the only possibilities are Parliament has to accept the deal on offer or puts off leaving by extending Article 50, or moves to a 2nd Referendum or a General Election. All these things suit the EU agenda - so why would they offer the UK, by way of negotiated amendment to the backstop, a concession? They won't. They are rubbing their hands at our stupidity. The ONLY way to get a better deal is with the credible threat of no deal.
Decision time on Tuesday 12th.
The most likely outcome is the Prime Minister (with a weakened negotiating hand) does not get an adequate concession and her deal falls in the meaningful vote.
Parliament will then probably seek more time from the EU. There is talk of seeking to extend article 50 by just 2 months (a breathing space?). (what point would this serve - what would be different in 2 months time. What happens at the expiry of the 2 months? ) But anyway an extension is subject to EU agreement. What advantage to the EU is it to agree to a short extension? None whatsoever - just more can kicking - more uncertainty - more prevarication.
They know they have us by the throat. What the EU is likely to say is they will agree to an extension to Article 50 only for a new referendum or a general election to take place. They might say they will agree to an extension of a minimum of a year or even 2 years in the belief (and probably correct belief) Brexit UK will run out of steam and WE stay after all. Are we really going to cave in like that?
I cannot see how Theresa May personally survives. She has failed.
As an ardent Brexiteer and democrat I hope MP's do not vote to take a NO DEAL Brexit off the table. I say this because No Deal gives us a clear way forward and I believe it can work.
Do we really want to go through the division of another Brexit referendum?. The sense of grievance will be massive. Are MP's really prepared to damage our democratic system for generations? And what about even more business uncertainty?
Can MP's really stand the prospect of rescinding Article 50 and having to go back to the EU with our tails between our legs and eating humble pie. Can you imagine how emboldened EU bureaucrats would be. We would be a laughing stock. Can our MP's really do that to this great country?
NO DEAL has to be better than a bad deal. There are so many advantages to no deal and no one can be sure of its impact. (not least our democratic freedom reinstated) Project Fear has been wrong so far. There is nothing to guarantee staying in the EU offers better prospects. The EU is beset with many of its own problems. (but alas remainers minds are closed to that)
If I was an MP I would be in the ERG. In an attempt to save a proper Brexit I would be prepared to play the nuclear option. I would be prepared to bring the Government down. That would focus the minds of our shockingly duplicitous and self serving MP's.
I had a mad thought this morning! Cut yourself off from the world. Disengage. Live life in my bubble - what is the point of 24 hour news? What is the point of bothering about Brexit or not - or anything else! I chuckle to myself. I am a long way from being able to step away - unless I can go off deep ocean sailing again! It wasn't long before I started thinking about writing this blog - felt compelled to do so for my sanity - ha!
Yesterday in Parliament confirmed my ire. In majority our MP's are self serving and duplicitous. They have let our country down - they continue to do so. They have played fast and loose with democracy. They should be ashamed of themselves.
A quick recap. Over 40 years ago we had a referendum to confirm our entry into the Common Market. Gradually the Common Market became something much different - much more impactful or pervasive in our lives - the EU - a political group of 28 nations. Not everyone agreed with this development - so after 40 years it was not unreasonable to give the British people the opportunity to vote on whether the wanted to stay in the EU or not.
In 2016 we had the referendum in which we were told emphatically - would be and in out referendum - a once in a generation opportunity. (and everyone accepted this at the time) It was clearly understood leaving meant taking back control of our laws, money, borders and to be able to trade freely with the rest of the world. The Government's own leaflet dropped through every letter box in the land said a vote to leave would mean leaving the single market and customs union.
What should have happened on the morning following the referendum result is all MP's, all political parties to have said - the people have spoken in a democratic referendum - it is incumbent on us to deliver the Brexit they have voted for - which means securing the 4 red lines that were set in the debate - even if we do not agree with it - even if we feel it is an act of self harm. This was and is (should be) the democratic imperative. Quite obviously too it would have been the most sensible thing to do in order to ensure the EU would take us seriously when negotiating an acceptable future trade deal. (Therefore in the interest of the nation - of all constituents - once the decision to leave was made.)
That is not what happened. What has happened is our shameful MP's have played fast and loose with our democratic system. They have used weasel words "I support the referendum decision" but I am going to advocate a BRINO or pressed for a second "binding" referendum (People's Vote). Many have conspired with the EU against the national interest. By this shocking duplicity MP's have all but destroyed the democratic thread that holds our complex society together and at the same time played right into the hands of the EU negotiators - undermining our chances of a good deal with the EU.
I would like to say here, a full Brexit as described in the pre referendum debate, upheld in the Prime ministers Lancaster House speech and the Tory party election manifesto, is the consistent position of the ERG group. The ERG group are now being refereed to as extremists and right wing. This is a travesty and completely wrong. The ERG are the only ones who properly represent the voting majority of the British people. In the same way reference to a Tory Brexit is completely bogus - the Brexit majority is drawn from both major parties.
So where are we now? What is going to happen?
Well the Prime Minister (under pressure from remainers in her cabinet like Amber Rudd and the take "no deal" off the table mob) made the following undertakings to Parliament yesterday :
1) She is currently still negotiating with the EU for legally binding changes to the back stop agreement.
2) She will bring the amended Brexit agreement back for a meaningful vote in Parliament on the 12th March.
3) If she loses she will sanction a vote to extend Article 50 and a vote taking "no deal" off the table.
What is the effect of this statement?
Given the EU does not want the UK to leave and if we do - it wants us to regret it (as a lesson to other EU countries) - the effect of the PM's forced announcement as in 3) above is to weaken her negotiating hand. If the EU really believed the UK would go through with a "no deal" Brexit, they would make the necessary concessions in the back stop to prevent it (as no deal hurts them badly). However Parliament has shown it will not accept "no deal". It follows if there can be "no deal" - the only possibilities are Parliament has to accept the deal on offer or puts off leaving by extending Article 50, or moves to a 2nd Referendum or a General Election. All these things suit the EU agenda - so why would they offer the UK, by way of negotiated amendment to the backstop, a concession? They won't. They are rubbing their hands at our stupidity. The ONLY way to get a better deal is with the credible threat of no deal.
Decision time on Tuesday 12th.
The most likely outcome is the Prime Minister (with a weakened negotiating hand) does not get an adequate concession and her deal falls in the meaningful vote.
Parliament will then probably seek more time from the EU. There is talk of seeking to extend article 50 by just 2 months (a breathing space?). (what point would this serve - what would be different in 2 months time. What happens at the expiry of the 2 months? ) But anyway an extension is subject to EU agreement. What advantage to the EU is it to agree to a short extension? None whatsoever - just more can kicking - more uncertainty - more prevarication.
They know they have us by the throat. What the EU is likely to say is they will agree to an extension to Article 50 only for a new referendum or a general election to take place. They might say they will agree to an extension of a minimum of a year or even 2 years in the belief (and probably correct belief) Brexit UK will run out of steam and WE stay after all. Are we really going to cave in like that?
I cannot see how Theresa May personally survives. She has failed.
As an ardent Brexiteer and democrat I hope MP's do not vote to take a NO DEAL Brexit off the table. I say this because No Deal gives us a clear way forward and I believe it can work.
Do we really want to go through the division of another Brexit referendum?. The sense of grievance will be massive. Are MP's really prepared to damage our democratic system for generations? And what about even more business uncertainty?
Can MP's really stand the prospect of rescinding Article 50 and having to go back to the EU with our tails between our legs and eating humble pie. Can you imagine how emboldened EU bureaucrats would be. We would be a laughing stock. Can our MP's really do that to this great country?
NO DEAL has to be better than a bad deal. There are so many advantages to no deal and no one can be sure of its impact. (not least our democratic freedom reinstated) Project Fear has been wrong so far. There is nothing to guarantee staying in the EU offers better prospects. The EU is beset with many of its own problems. (but alas remainers minds are closed to that)
If I was an MP I would be in the ERG. In an attempt to save a proper Brexit I would be prepared to play the nuclear option. I would be prepared to bring the Government down. That would focus the minds of our shockingly duplicitous and self serving MP's.
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