#Brexit will our MP's betray our democracy? The next 19 days - the most momentous in British politics since the war.

The legal default position is the UK leaves the EU on the 29th March. 19 days away.

Two years after our Parliament (by massive majority) triggered Article 50 (which established the legal leave date) how we leave or even will we leave, is still not determined. This is a travesty - both in terms of our democratic system and our planned future.

MP's options are running out - something has to give and give quickly. What is going to happen?  Pundits are making their predictions - so I am throwing in my three penneth - to keep me sane!

1. Theresa Mays deal will be rejected on Tuesday. It is a terrible deal. The EU has us over a barrel if we sign it. Our MP's are not that stupid.
2. What should happen as no deal is better than a bad deal is we leave on 29th March with no deal. This is what I want to happen. It is the only option on the table that will uphold our democracy. It is the only option that offers a decisive way forward now. It is the only option on the table that guarantees Brexit.
3. However all the signs are our MP's will vote on Wednesday to try and stop No Deal happening. (in doing so of course they immediately mortally wound the UK in terms of negotiation with the EU. We are left with nothing to negotiate with. We are left with a begging bowl.) Sickening.

So what happens then?

Either :

1. TM goes back to the EU again to try and get a backstop concession. There is then another meaningful vote before 29th March and it passes.
2. The Government has to go back to the EU to ask for an extension to Article 50.
3. Parliament decides to hold a second referendum.
4. The government falls (resigns) and we have a general election.

In any of the scenarios above Theresa May could well be forced to step down.

In respect of 3 and 4 above the EU have indicated they will agree to extend Article 50.

As long as no deal is off the table the EU will not make concessions to TM in 1. above. Why would they? It is not in their interest to do so. If they offer no concessions then they get what they want. They keep our money and they thwart economic competition on their doorstep. We are likely stuck in the EU.

2 is the most likely - but will the EU agree unless it is either for the long term or for 3 or 4 above.

In the unlikely event they agree a short term extension - what is the benefit to anyone  - specifically the UK? Ok it provides a breathing space - takes the pressure off for a few weeks - but how does that help. It changes nothing. It is only by keeping the pressure on that we will get a decision.

If the UK accepts a one or two year extension everyone understands that the 2016 Brexit referendum vote will not be respected. Democracy will have been thwarted.

So in summary what do I think will happen - it is either No Deal by default ( I am hoping Parliament can't stop it in time) or we have what seems the most unlikely outcome of turkeys voting for Christmas - a general election.

I do not believe the house will pass Theresa May's deal unless the EU give ground at the last minute. I don't think the EU will.

A short extension to Article 50 changes nothing.

I cannot see Parliament agreeing to a long extension - the uncertainty will be totally unjustifiable. The boil needs to be lanced. It will be a too obvious betrayal of the Brexit vote.

There is no majority in the House for a second referendum. It is too divisive - too problematic - doesn't necessarily solve the issues and most importantly of all it is again an obvious democratic betrayal that I believe the majority of MP's will not want to be associated with. There is no stomach for it. Too many MP's realise it will have a catastrophic impact on our country in terms of social cohesion.

So better the government falls and we start again. What will be in the party manifestos goodness knows. Presumably both Labour and Conservative will campaign to remain. I think the Conservatives will feel they will be favourites to win. Labour seems to be in a mess - UKIP are no longer credible and the particular advantage is it would be too early for the new TIG party to really get their act together. For this reason I think the Tories could go for it with a new leader.

MP's this mess can be resolved this week. Reaffirm "No Deal" is better than a bad deal. Lets take our own future in our own hands. There is too much pessimism. No deal will present many opportunities. Crucially we will be free - we will not have succumbed to bulling and been undermined by project fear. Most importantly our democracy will have been preserved under a massive strain and we will be able to hold our heads high as a civilised nation. The alternative is to hang our heads in shame and go back to the EU with our tails between our legs to be despised for generations. 

MP's can you imagine -  can you stomach the sense of empowerment the EU bureaucrats and technocrats will feel having defeated us. Can you imagine the contempt with which we will inevitably be treated. Are you going to take this proud nation down that path. Shame on you if you are.