Monday 22 September 2014

#Politics is a power game

We cherish our democracy. We have to elect representatives. Therefore we must have politicians.

Politicians come in many guises. Some are careerists, some are conviction politicians. Some are pragmatists some are doctrinal. Some are free thinkers some are tribal. However whatever they are when they set out or whatever they become over time - they all have one driving force in common - a thirst for POWER. Without power you cannot do anything cannot change anything - it just becomes a talking shop.

So the golden rule of politics and politicians must be GET ELECTED AND TRY AND STAY ELECTED.

This simple truism is being starkly played out now. It is fascinating (and I have to say amusing) watching the brutal and raw politics on show over the English devolution issue and what is referred to as the West Lothian question.

I will briefly recap.
  • The 4 countries in the Union all sent (and still do of course) MP's to the UK parliament at Westminster.
  • However there has been devolution of powers - particularly in the 1990's with the formation of the Welsh and Northern Irish Assemblies and of course the Scottish Parliament. Scots can now make decisions in their own Parliament on matters that affect Scotland and quite rightly English MP's have no say in it.
  • It is now promised that Scotland will get even more devolved powers.
  • This has highlighted once again in a stark and blatant way the inequity demonstrated by the "West Lothian Question". 
  • The West Lothian Question - "For how long will English constituencies and English Honourable members tolerate ... at least 119 Honourable Members from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland exercising an important, and probably often decisive, effect on English politics while they themselves have no say in the same matters in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland?"
  • The name "West Lothian question" was coined after Tam DalyellLabour MP for the Scottish constituency of West Lothian, raised the matter in 1977 during a British House of Commons debate over Scottish and Welsh devolution.Since the beginning of Devolution and especially the establishment in the 1990s of the new Welsh and Northern Irish Assemblies and Scottish Parliament, this question has taken on a new urgency. In September 2011, it was announced that the UK government was to set up a commission to examine the West Lothian question.
  • There is of course a fresh impetus to do something about it - ( ie the fundamental equity position - only English representatives should be able to vote on English laws) - following the decision to give Scotland even more powers - and the fact the Welsh and N. Irish assemblies will will want more devolved power too.
BUT - back to the Golden Rule of Politics - power comes from getting elected and staying elected. 

Dealing with the West Lothian question has proved difficult (impossible) because balances of power both now and going forward perhaps forever are likely to be affected.
A quick explanation :-

Scotland is typically more left leaning in its politics than England - as is Wales. Historically Labour has formed governments in Westminster based on an overall majority formed with the inclusion of MP's from Scotland particularly and Wales. Currently Scotland send 41 Labour MP's to Westminster. (They can all vote on English matters). The Conservatives currently have one MP coming from Scotland.

So the political game being played out :-

CONSERVATIVES - they want to tackle the West Lothian question quickly (on the back of increased devolved powers to Scotland as English voters are mindful now of the inequity posed by the West Lothian question). They argue the electorate want the same privileges the Scots, Welsh and N Irish will have. They argue this is common-sense and fair and nothing to do with increasing their electoral chances in England (where the real power lies because the population is so much bigger).

LABOUR - they cannot take the risk of arguing against English votes for English Laws. (even the Scottish Nationalist Party have no objection - they are happy for England to be self determining). At the same time they know if they concede any change that means they cannot count on Scottish Labour MP's at Westminster they will undermine their chances of power in England perhaps for ever. Conservatives are acutely aware of this.

So their position - "constitution change is a complex matter" - we will form a commission to look into English devolution or an English only parliament and we will set it up in the autumn of 2015 (neatly after the next general election in May 2015). They argue these issues are complex and far reaching and it is right to consult widely and not rush it! Effectively this is an old political trick - commonly referred to as kicking the ball into long grass - (in the hope it will go away and be forgotten about.) ( a political tactic that often works when you have a problem with an issue - see airports, rail links, nuclear power etc etc).

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS - they are not as anti change as Labour but they want something different and are muddying the waters to get it. The Liberals have no chance of gaining overall power via Westminster. However they have been very successful in building power bases in towns and cities and being in power locally. So yes! they want power to be devolved from Westminster to LOCAL AUTHORITIES and new cosmopolitan and regional areas. (at best a very tenuous link to actually resolving the West Lothian question - it just reduces Westminster power)  They argue of course that this is good for business and local democracy - power is too centralised at Westminster! They ignore the the reality explained in the Wiki extract copied below (and say appetites for local power have changed).

Devolution referendums in Northern England were proposed under provisions of the Regional Assemblies (Preparations) Act 2003. Initially, three referendums were planned, but only one took place. The votes concerned the question of devolving limited political powers from the UK Parliament to elected regional assemblies in North East EnglandNorth West England and Yorkshire and the Humber respectively.
On 4 November 2004, voters in the North East rejected the proposal by 77.9% on a turnout of 49%, which halted the government's proposed referendums in the North West and Yorkshire and the Humber which were postponed and then dropped.

UKIP are really only interested in England. They are striving to build their power base here - particularly by taking votes off the Conservatives. They are pressing/embarrassing the Conservatives to put England first and the Conservatives know there is a lot of traction for UKIP with nationalistic minded English voters - particularly on the right wing. In an ideal world the Conservatives would like a bit more time to deal with these issues despite the fact there has already been plenty of research and consultation done on matters relating to solving the West Lothian question. (exposing the Labour call for a further long winded commission). The Conservatives have to try to keep UKIP at bay by ensuring Labour do not get away with delaying tactics (which will increase their chances of power) but disadvantage the English electorate. UKIP will refer to Cameron as weak and letting the English down if he lets the Scots have increased devolution without at the same time solving the West Lothian problem. 
It will be very revealing to see how it unfolds and what the electorate and commentators make of it. Can Labour fend off changes in the voting rights of Scottish MP's in England to preserve their power. Can the UKIP force the Conservatives to steamroller English only interest (even if it means delaying time-scale promises made to the Scots before the referendum) by making sure England gets what the Scots get at the same time the Scots get it. Will the Liberal Democrats sit with the Labour or Conservative position. Will power be devolved from Westminster to the regions or large city conurbations? Will we actually get a separate English Parliament. (my view doubtful because of cost but particularly because it will mean Westminster MP's are likely to lose control/power.) Fascinating stuff!

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